But is that number even real?
The very latest total specimen collection report we as commissioners have received is posted below. It was sent out at 8:38 PM last night. It has data through Friday April 3rd reflected.
Now, looking at this data presented above, we see that in Escambia County a total of 3,898 specimens have been collected (COVID-19 Tests administered). And this data does not include the latest positive and negative results data from Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this past week.
Nevertheless, we have administered 3,898 total tests in Escambia County as of Friday (and probably more yesterday).
But looking again at the latest information reported on Florida's "Dashboard" just this morning, below, we see a skewed number again, the "total tests" number is only 1,510....
We know the test results are coming back faster now; the Mayor of Pensacola got his results back in a little over a day, and others who have been tested last week are getting results reported back within 48 hours. I am personally aware of this happening. And the testers who administer the drive through swabs are telling the patients to expect results within 24-48 hours. With this said--- why does this delta in the figures continue, and why is it growing as compared to the last several times I have measured it here and here?
This is one of the lingering questions I will be asking the expert medical panelists this coming Wednesday morning when I host them on my virtual 34th Coffee with the Commissioner online event.
We were told at Thursday's BCC meeting that the state's "total tests" figure on their dashboard actually, simply means "test results received." So why not simply call it that?!?
The current nomenclature the state is using creates confusion and uncertainty and is needlessly vague.
But setting that aside, here is what really concerns me:
Seeing the trends statewide---the percentage of positive test results is running at nearly 11%. The percentage for Escambia County--if we look at the total number of "test results received" and the concomitant percentage of positive test results reported locally as a percentage of the total-- is currently running 7.8%--less than the state average percentage.
So here is the deal. Is it irrational to believe, knowing we have 2,388 test results not yet reported, that we actually have 7.8% of those tests probably coming back positive? I don't believe it is irrational. I believe it is logical.
So how many positive COVID-19 cases does Escambia County really have at the moment--taking the total reported and adding in 7.8% of the total tests conducted but not yet received?
A logical "deduction" , based upon the data and statistics as we currently know know them to be, would be our total real number could be actual 304 Positive COVID-19 Cases in Escambia County Presently!
Yes, it could be lower. It could be.
But logic and reason dictates that based upon the evidence the number locally is at least 304 or more.
Jeff, likely many many more than 300 are "positive" or have already been through virus with no symptoms and have antibodies...
ReplyDeleteThank you for continuing to pursue this information, Commissioner Bergosh. It's really important, and it's a relief to have a local leader be candid about this nonsense, which has been in full swing from the earliest days of any state response to this.
ReplyDeleteAt some point, though, we really have to make a swing as a community from being hung up on precise numbers and face the inevitable: it's going to be worse here than a lot of people would have wished/projected.
And so far, County administration's negligence in this has been, as I said in my comment that was read at the last board meeting, appalling. I simply cannot imagine a worse response on a County level than what Janice Gilley has conducted--or failed to conduct. And as long as she is allowed free rein by the BOCC to downplay this problem; plead ignorance at every turn; pretend that she is actually concerned about the health of County staff; and act as if she has the experience and wherewithal to lead through this sort of thing; the County's failure of leadership will continue to have a negative impact on the safety of our front line angels and the number of covid deaths Escambia tallies in the end (a number that will necessarily be lower than the reality, due to the testing inadequacies and irregularities you have helped document).
On a sidenote (sorta, given the economic hardship and disaster so many Escambians face right now), nice hire on another friend. Maybe since the new assistant administrator beat Ms. Gilley out for the drum majorette job at Tate High, she'll show a little more ability to lead the parade. Which is all the County's response has been thus far anyway.
Sincerely,
Melissa Pino
The turds are rising to top. The narcissistic denial mind fu#k and articulate histronic blamer. Get a room. Hilton
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