Thoughts on the Primary Part III: How Did the Polling Play Out; How Did it Compare to Election Day Vote?

A picture of an Andy Marlette cartoon similar to this one (above) hangs currently outside the office of the District 2 Escambia County Commissioner.  This one, above, is a much better version of it though!

Winning an election is something that requires diligent effort, family and friends' support, intelligence, the right candidate, the right message, intuition, deft marketing, good campaign literature/materials, a strong campaign  "team,"-- and money.

As I proceeded with my campaign this go round in 2020--I knew it would be a tough election for me.  And this was even before COVID-19 and the difficulties this pandemic has caused all candidates in all races.  

We have a major FDOT (state) road project that is running 18 months behind schedule and causing MAJOR traffic issues to the largest area of my district, I have multiple neighborhoods with major drainage issues for which they blame me, and there are hundreds of citizens that are mad about runaway growth out in NW District 1----and blame me for all of it even though much of it was approved prior to my assumption of this office in late 2016. Add to this the OLF 8 development that has angered many  AND--there were/are active multiple facebook chat sites that have a couple of dozen members each  that disparage me continuously on a regular basis---- fomenting anger and hostility towards me constantly---attempting to remove me at election time.  This combined with what would prove to be a dismally small percentage of voters actually participating in this off-cycle primary election (more than 2/3 of the voters did not vote in the August 18th Primary Election)--and conditions were ripe for my potential ouster from this office; the conditions were perfect for a challenger to be successful against me in this election.  And I knew it.

So having the right message, the right strategy, and the right data, was critical for me to win re-election.

When I successfully ran for this office first in 2015-2016----I was fortunate in that I was able to go to 8,637 District 1 houses personally, door to door.  I learned a lot about what was/is important to citizens then, which allowed me the knowledge to put together a first hundred day plan for that election.

I utilized that information, plus input from citizens garnered this time from four years on the job talking to constituents in town halls, at coffee meetings, and at advisory committee meetings in order to formulate a guidance document, a strategic plan, that would be the centerpiece of my election.  I called that plan NEXT4Escambia--and it was very well received by citizens and I will be putting the ideas from that plan forward over the next four years now that I have won this election. 

POLLING DATA WAS THE KEY TO THIS ELECTION FOR ME

Nothing was more important and key to my victory than the data I gleaned from my multiple polling done with Gravis Marketing, though.  Nothing else even came close....

There were, to my knowledge, 7 polls run in my race for re-election as the D1 County Commissioner.  Of these 7--I have the results of 6 of them as 2 were run and published by INWeekly-and I personally ran 4 polls myself with Gravis Marketing: On February 1st, May 25th, June 26th, and July 22nd--I ran polls with similar questions in order to triangulate my position in the race in real time in the lead up to election day.  The 7th poll run was (I believe) put out in early July and it was a three-question survey that asked about the Presidential contest, my D1 race, and then one other question.  I believe Jesse's team ran that one and I never saw the results.  My guess is that I probably had a 10-point lead over Jesse at that point, and a 20 point lead over Jonathan.  Jimmie Trotter was never a factor in the race according to my polling.

I was never behind in any poll of which I was aware--even though some mixed signals were intentionally sent from "Rick's Blog" the day before the election--falsely intimating I was not leading every poll and not the front-runner but rather "in the running"--whatever that was supposed to mean.  It was bad information, fake news.  I led EVERY poll and was always the front-runner in this campaign and I challenge Rick Outzen or anyone else for that matter to show me data pointing to anything but this. (And the fact that Rick Outzen put out messaging signalling I was not leading in all polls is not surprising;  the fact he never disclosed that his pollster is/was Jesse Casey's Campaign Manager also--well that was a complete lapse in journalistic integrity.  Complete.  But not surprising.)

So from all of this polling data, I quickly ascertained that my only real competition in the race was Jesse Casey.  I held a large lead over him and the rest of the field in the early polling, but he steadily eroded this lead in each successive poll, and he had momentum going into election day.  Here is the way the polling looked, among Decided D1 voters of all parties through the first part of this year leading up to the election in my polling:

                     Feb 1st                May 11th                June 25th                July 19th               Primary (8-18)                        

Bergosh         52%                     46%                       45%                           42%                            38.7%                         

Casey             31%                    30%                        33%                           34%                            31.02%

Owens           13%                     16%                        17%                           14%                            22.48%

Trotter            4%                      8%                           5%                            10%                              7.8%

So the glide slope to the election was pretty consistent, with me in the 40s, Jesse in the low 30s, Jonathan in the teens (and trending downward in the last poll before the election) and Trotter struggling to get out of single digits.

The big surprise for me on Election Day was the extent to which Jonathan rose and Jesse and I went backwards.  I had predicted a much closer election margin between Jesse and I;  I had predicted it

Bergosh 40%, Casey 35%, Owens 18% and Trotter 7%.  My prediction was close, however Jonathan managed an 8.5 point rally that actually pulled from all the other candidates somewhat equally;  3.3% from me, 3% from Jesse, and 2.2% from Trotter.  And that is how we got where we ended up on election day.  And that is how I won this election.  With hard work, a good team, but most importantly with good data.

Thoughts on the Primary Part II: Who Were the Candidates?

A picture of an Andy Marlette Cartoon similar to this one (above) hangs currently outside the office of the District 2 Escambia County Commissioner.  My version is much better though!

Now that the race for the District 1 Commissioner is over, and I have prevailed, there have been some lingering questions put to me by some friends and also some online haters about this race.  Because I won in the primary and there is no General Election opponent of a different party--I will (if the Good Lord wills it and I don't die) serve the next 4 years and 3 months as the D1 commissioner.  But there are curious questions out there from some.....

So I'm going to go through some of the salient aspects of the race over the next week in a series of blog posts and then this one will officially be in the history books and my rear-view mirror forever as I serve the next nearly 51 months as commissioner, as the 2020 victor in this race.

After my General Election victory in November of 2016 by a 69%-31% Margin--- I knew I was going to run for re-election for my D1 commission seat in 2020--as there were/are a ton of issues in the works for which I wanted to see to completion. So I pre-filed early, in October of 2018.  I subsequently mapped out a fundraising strategy that included two (2) major fundraisers in 2019 (March and October) which were smashing successes and which allowed me the war-chest necessary to conduct a proper and successful campaign.

On April 2nd of 2019 (my birthday), Jesse Casey pre-filed to run against me.  This would be his third run at the office--after having been defeated in both the 2012 and 2016 primary elections.  Full disclosure-I think highly of Jesse;  I even hired him to do some concrete work at my house in early 2018.  And he did great work on a concrete slab at my house.  At the completion of that project he and I were talking, and I asked if he was going to run again, against me, and he was honest and forthright saying "Yes, I'm probably going to run again."  And he did.

In January of 2020 District 2 Commissioner Doug Underhill's office aide had received an attorney's opinion that he could keep his job with D2 at the county while also running in a partisan election against me for the D1 seat.  So Jonathan Owens, office aide to Doug Underhill,  pre-filed to run in early January of this year to run against me as well.

(The PNJ took interest in this race early, and asked my opinion about it.  I correctly predicted the outcome in this PNJ article from January 10th when I stated there would be no change to whom it was that occupied this seat after the primary.  I was right.)

Early in the spring of 2020, the fourth candidate, Jimmie Trotter, pre-filed.

So we had a four-man Republican primary race, and upon the final date for candidate filing when no NPA or DEM candidate filed--I knew it would be an election settled in the primary.

I also knew it would be an election that would not have a runoff, as in Florida---partisan primary runoff elections have been discontinued for years.  

It would be an election where the candidate with the most votes on primary election day, August 18th, would be the victor.

Thoughts on the Primary Part I: "Tool-Boy" Marlette and PNJ have NO Say, and NO Sway :)

Andy Marlette and the PNJ, although they tried, exerted ZERO influence in this year's elections--mine in particular......NADA, Zilch...Hopefully this holds true in November as well.....

In the waning days of my recent successful primary election campaign, I must admit I was somewhat astonished that the PNJ in general, and their cartoonist Andy Marlette specifically, had not attempted to interfere more openly in my election.  There's a history between me and the PNJ---and after they pulled this disgusting, unprofessional stunt on me earlier this year--I expected more attacks.  

Then came Friday, August 7th and an out of the blue,  non-contextualized attack cartoon by Marlette against me. (below-photograph taken 8-29-20 from PNJ online site of PNJ cartoon published Friday 8-7-20).  

Just out of the clear blue sky this cartoon arrived.  The day they published it was the day before the start of 8 days of early voting for my election.  Now, I chuckled to myself when I saw this garbage cartoon  pop on the Friday before early voting--thinking Andy had probably toured my district and seen one or more of my 19 billboards deployed in D1.  Given PNJ's proclivity for attacking me-- I naturally assumed there would be an attack editorial in the subsequent Sunday paper.  But there wasn't.   Instead--they attacked two different Republican candidates (actually three different Republicans).  Anyhow--I did another Marlette Manipulation (above) and actually succeeded in properly contextualizing the dishonesty and duplicity of this publication and their cartoonist in particular--along with what is really true about them that should be plastered on billboards around this town.

And now that I have decompressed from the primary and I begin serving (if the Good Lord wills it and I do not die) what will be at a minimum the next 51 months as Escambia County's District 1 Commissioner (that's a LONG time PNJ)---I see in today's paper a "letter to the editor" is published "praising" this cartoon from 8-7-20 bashing me from before the primary.

So now is the time to challenge this misplaced "praise."  And to call out PNJ for what they are....

First off---The PNJ and their editorial board are dishonest, fake news.  

Everyone know this. They publish extreme viewpoints that alienate the majority of their ever-dwindling subscriber base--bashing Jesus Christ and Christianity, bashing public officials (exclusively conservative ones) and they promulgate viewpoints that, at least  to my district according to MANY I speak with, come off as extremely left-leaning, liberal, and out of step.  I guess PNJ doesn't understand this, but my goodness--with print-media revenues declining you would think they would at least be a little more covert with their outright contempt for the center-right majority in Escambia County.  

But no.

More troubling, though, are the personal attacks that are unfair and untrue.  For example and #1.) --the cartoon they published on 8-7-20 deceptively misleads the reader to think that I am a pawn of the folks in the community that write campaign checks--the so-called "downtown crowd." I'm not and they know it. I have routinely voted against contributors' wishes and for what was best for the people I represent--and I will continue to do so when appropriate. Meanwhile, though, every other incumbent commissioner--and several challengers in multiple other races--also got contributions from these same folks.  So why attack me exclusively?  More importantly---the only incumbent Democrat commissioner in the race got contributions from the SAME folks who wrote me checks (and he got a LOT more money from them).  The very same donors Andy apparently hates donate to us all.  But the Democrat is not scrutinized and bashed (and he should NOT BE) for taking the same money ----but I am?  That is dishonesty in media.  Dishonesty and duplicity.  (Here's a newsflash for the PNJ....there is a small, small pool of check writers locally that pay attention to politics and actually fund candidates they believe are good public servants--because they have interests affected by our decision making.  Most citizens that could afford to participate and contribute simply do not do so..... PNJ fake-news, failed logic alert:  "If these folks give to Jeff Bergosh--it is BAD!  But when the same donors give money to candidates we favor, this is FINE and we will not cover it."

#2.)  The implication that I am somehow "anti-environmental" is a lie.  PNJ knows this. I grew up fishing on the west side of Pensacola, I was a Boy Scout, and I am an environmentalist at heart!  They attempt to tie me into the issues of International Paper and their FDEP discharge permit---knowing full-well the county has NO play in that permit process--that is a Federal and State-Level Issue.  PNJ also never reported that I independently toured IP's facilities in both Cantonment and Beulah on multiple occasions and wrote extensively about these visits and what I learned.  They also never report the FACT that Perdido Bay's Health is BETTER now than it has been in the last 20 years.  No mention of this from PNJ....nope.  Goes against their narrative.  (Incidentally--when I toured IP's facilities last year, I asked and was told that neither Andy Marlette nor anyone from the PNJ had requested and taken a tour of their facilities and polishing wetlands like I did...)  Not a surprise to me--they have their minds made up already:  IP= Evil Capitalists!

#3.)  PNJ shadow banned me from writing viewpoints.  I've written dozens of these over the last 14 years and they hate it.  They just do not like it, so they simply started saying NO---- citing a policy that  ".....they do not publish the op-eds of candidates with primary or general election opposition..." [paraphrased].  But wait a second--- they did just that on multiple occasions---allowing viewpoints from at least two (2) other incumbent officeholders during this election cycle to be published in the PNJ--- even though these same officeholders had primary and general election opponents!

There is much more I could say about all of this, and there will be plenty of time for this now that the election is over.

So no, I'm not a fan of PNJ.  But they are here and so am I, so we will simply co-exist.  I'll have to deal with them, and they'll just have to deal with me.

But I will continue to call out their ridiculous partisanship, dishonesty, and duplicity for at least the next 51 months because this is America and I have the right of free speech just like they do.  And I have a platform to do it!

Escambia County to Receive $8.48 Million in Additional Oil Spill Settlement Money Next Week!

County Attorney Alison Rogers reports that the Levin-Papantonio Law Firm has contacted her with notification of a punitive damages settlement award related to the BP/Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill of 2010.   This settlement is from Transocean and Halliburton, two firms that were involved in the litigation surrounding the spill. 

From the Levin Papantoino attorney to Alison Rogers:

"....The total gross award from the HESI/Transocean Punitive Damages & Assigned Claims Settlements for the coastal real property claims we filed on behalf of Escambia County is $10,343,477.12.  The outstanding cost total is $179.79.  The attorneys’ fee pursuant to the fee agreement is 18%, which is 1,861,793.52, making the net award $8,481,503.81.   We will prepare and email the Distribution Statement to you next week for review and signature.  Once we receive the signed Distribution Statement, we will request the check and provide it to you.  We are very pleased with the resolution of these claims and thank you for allowing us to represent you!"

Thank You District 1!

The race for me was long, beginning in March of 2019.  

But it is over as of last night.  

The votes have been counted and the results are in: by 1082 votes and representing nearly an 8-percentage point margin--I was victorious in last night's election.  

I am humbled and extremely thankful that the citizens have re-elected me to another term on the Board of County Commissioners!

First and foremost, I thank God.  I am so blessed and I am thankful to Him!

Next, I am thankful to my family--my wife Sally and our three children Tori, Nick, and Brandon.  I'm thankful for all the support of my brother Gary, my sister-in-law Carissa, my nephews Alex and Ben, and my extended Marsh family in San Diego--Jeff and Gayle, Charlene and Tyler, Matthew and Rachel, Dylan, Jake, Charlie, and Ben.  

There is nobody a candidate leans on more than family--I have a great family, they are supportive, and for this I am thankful.

I am also thankful for the many great friends I have in the community that are always there for me;  It is incredibly difficult to do anything in politics without great friends that are there for you when you need them--and I am blessed to have a great network of friends in District 1 and throughout the county who stepped up, supported this campaign, helped to canvass, wrote checks, posted on social media, placed signs in their yards, and attended campaign events.  It really takes a team to do these campaigns, and I am thankful for the team that stood behind me in this election.

So I am prepared to serve and will serve, if the Good Lord wills it, for the next 4 years and 3 months in this position as we continue to move forward and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic locally. And we have so many ongoing projects that we are working and challenges we will turn into opportunities for our citizens.  I look forward to the years ahead, and  I am so thankful and grateful for the opportunity to serve--thanks to all who have made it possible.

Now, let's get to work together---there is lots to do!

Enhancements for Beulah Park are now Under Construction!

Three cool new features are coming soon to Beulah's regional park.  Funded in March with $200,000.00 from District 1 Discretionary local option sales tax (LOST) funds-construction has now begun at the park.

Construction was supposed to begin in June/July--but there were some delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The three new features will consist of:

1. An outdoor fitness feature which will allow adults to work out outdoors--instead of in an indoor environment where air circulation would not be as good.

2.  A rock climbing wall for children and teens--this will be a really nifty addition to the park that I know the children will love!

3.  A Children's Water Play area with misters, water towers and other play features 

that allow kids to cool off by getting wet on hot summer days.

I look forward to getting these upgrades completed as soon as possible!

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-15-2020?

 Early voting has now ended in Escambia County for the August 18th Primary Election.  As of COB yesterday--Countywide 19.60% of registered voters had cast their collective ballots already either by early voting or by absentee ballot as allowed by law.  The countywide number of early votes is static now--as that voting has concluded.  Absentee ballots, however, will continue to arrive and be counted Monday and Tuesday--so it appears that it will be a 20% turnout at least by the time physical, at-precinct ballots begin to be cast Tuesday.

So how many votes will that leave for election day on Tuesday?  What percentage of votes are still out and to be expected on election day?

As I predicted last week, I believe the majority of votes for this primary have already been cast, and that the majority of the votes will have been made via absentee.  I believe we will have a bump on election day, which will push the total a bit higher and that will ultimately be a larger number total than the early voter total, but less than the absentee vote total.  I arrive at this conclusion by looking at the turnout in non-presidential primary elections in Escambia County over the last 15 years--where turnout for such primaries was as follows:

2018-30.8% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2016-27% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2014-16.78% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2012-26.34% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2010-25.15% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2008-25.31% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2006-29.88% of eligible voters voted in the primary

So throwing out the outliers in 2014 and 2018 while averaging the other years gives an average participation percentage (of total eligible voters) of  26.73.  I happen to believe that the actual percentage of voters that will participate in this election will be a bit higher, but not much.  I believe it will be between 27.5%-29%.  And with 20% effectively in the bag already via early and absentee votes cast through yesterday--this means a whopping 69% to 73% of voters that will vote in this year's primary----again using historical data to estimate this--have already cast their ballots.

This means only 27%-31% of the total votes are yet to be cast and counted.  Meaning the election, for the most part, has already happened.

So what does this mean for my primary, the one I am competing in right now and that ends on Tuesday?

With 8,635 votes cast thus far equating to 18.24% eligible District 1 voters, and assuming the middle of the estimated participation range I described above, or 28.5% of eligible voters total to turn out----I'm predicting that 13, 489 voters total will participate in my primary election in District 1.  With 8,635 having already cast their ballots--this leaves just 4,854 left to be cast on Tuesday--just over one-third of the total that will be cast.  Or put another way---2/3 of this primary is already "in the can."

But hey, it's 2020 and this year with COVID-19 and a crashing economy plus hyper-toxic politics---this  is anything but your average year.  

Therefore anything could happen.

Watch.

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1

Recent Ruling is an Interesting Read......

Commissioners were just provided with this public record document this past week, in August, that a Federal Judge issued in June.  ?

It revolves around a case that was filed against the county by a former employee.

I was contacted by this employee when he was going through the issues raised in what would eventually become a lawsuit against the county.  I tried as best I could to intervene and ensure our policies were followed with respect to due process rights for this employee.  This is our policy.

Unfortunately--folks did not listen.

And I wish it had not gone this direction, I wish the folks in HR and Emergency Management could have followed policy to the letter and if they had done so-----I do not believe this lawsuit would have happened.

But folks did what they did, we had quite a bit of turnover, folks just "shrugged" their collective shoulders, and and employee's entire career hung in the balance.  Now we are getting a glimpse into which way the legal proceedings are going based upon what the judge said in his written order denying multiple motions to dismiss on several important allegations that have been made against the county and against one particular employee in both this employee's official and personal capacities.

As I said, I was asked to look into this by an exasperated employee and I did.  I discussed it here with multiple posts.  I wish folks would just follow the policies.  Following policy prevents issues like this from erupting like Mt. Vesuvius. Following policy ensures employees--ALL EMPLOYEES--are treated fairly.  Following policies is prudent financially, as it saves taxpayer dollars that otherwise get spent defending lawsuits.  Following policy is what is EXPECTED of us! 

But worse than not simply following policy-------when a policy is not followed and then this conduct is condoned and endorsed after the fact---it only gets worse.

So we will see which way this goes eventually as it concludes in the courts.  I will continue to watch with great interest.  More importantly---when this is settled in the court and a ruling is made--the issue will not end simply with a settlement payout so far as I am concerned.  It may also necessitate additional action by the board based upon our policy NOT being followed.  We will have to see what happens then.

My advice:  Always follow the rules, always.  And NEVER, EVER Double Down on someone's else's bad decisions by embracing such decisions because if you do, you own the consequences.  ALL of them.

Follow our policies with fidelity always.  ALWAYS!

53rd Coffee with the Commissioner Event will Occur in Two Weeks

 

We are going to continue our online, virtual "Coffee with the Commissioner" events until it is safe to once again resume these in person out in locations throughout Escambia County's District 1.  Our next Coffee event, our 53rd edition, will occur two weeks from this Wednesday--on September 2nd.

This week, we will not have our event due to the election (in which I am a participant)  and I will also be out of state visiting my son Nick who will be starting his second year of law school at Marquette on the 24th.

So our coffee on the 2nd will be all about COVID-19 and how we are reporting the statistics to you, the citizens of the county.  I will have Janice Gilley, County Administrator and Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency manager on the webinar with me on the 2nd.  And I invite you to submit any questions you may have on any aspect of the county's response to the COVID-19 Pandemic to me in advance as either a comment to this blog, an email to me ( District1@myescambia.com ) , or on my Commissioner's Facebook page   https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

Importantly--I will and have been pursuing an important new metric for our dashboard:  Recovered Rate.

I believe this is a critically important data point to present along with all of the other information because as we continuously add the new case numbers to the dashboard--folks are seeing this huge number out of context in my opinion-----as many may falsely believe that number represents the current number of citizens stricken by this virus--even though this number includes cases from as far back as March.  And other states and municipalities have begun taking a 6-week heuristic and applying it to new cases.  Although this is not a perfect, foolproof method for illustrating a "recovered rate"--it is better than what we are doing currently in my opinion.

Simply stated, applying a six week standard to all cases (because after 6 weeks post diagnosis--the vast majority of patients recover with a very small percentage remaining hospitalized past 6-weeks and an even smaller number succumbing to the disease and dying.)  So, to illustrate the recovered numbers better--this sort of a protocol should be added to our dashboard so folks see a more realistic number of local citizens who are infected at a moment in time-----not the TOTAL number diagnosed since the beginning of the pandemic.

This will be a big part of the discussion on September 2nd--I look forward to it.  

 The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, September 2nd-- simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online!

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-8-2020?

It is interesting and informative to look at the data that is coming in regarding the Primary Election that is happening right now in Escambia County.

As a candidate on the ballot for County Commissioner in District 1--it is especially intriguing to watch the election play out in real time--because I certainly have a vested interest in this contest.  

But setting that aside,  It is nevertheless interesting to watch how people are voting this year as we go through the process.

Yes, the election is happening right now as we speak--and yet we are still 10 full days away from the "Official" Election Day, Tuesday August 18th.

That's because MANY are voting by mail this year.  More than normal.  Postage is paid this year by the Supervisor of Elections-and I can only assume that folks want to avoid crowds and socially distance themselves and are therefore voting absentee, as permitted by Florida Law, in greater numbers than in "normal" primary election contests we've recently held locally.

But what is "normal"--given this year and all it has brought to our Nation, State, and County?

Civil unrest, COVID-19 and its associated impacts, and an uncertain economy.  All three of these issues are playing into this local primary election.

County-wide, as of COB yesterday and according to the Supervisor of Elections Website (which is providing excellent real-time data and statistics on the election, day by day and hour by hour) 20,313 Escambia voters have already cast their ballots for this August 18th Primary Election County-wide.  This represents 11.62% of the total number of the 174,860  registered voters county-wide.

But drilling down on District 1, specifically, I see that of the total number of voters that have participated county-wide thus far--an inordinately large portion of these voters are District 1 voters.  Just over 25% of the total number of votes cast thus far, or 5,080 votes, have already been District 1 voters.  This is interesting to see because the natural assumption would be that the total votes cast would be relatively proportional among the five districts at 20% per district of the total.

But this is not the case.  So what is driving the larger turnout in District 1?

It could be a couple of heated state representative primary elections.  In the southern part of District 1 that is Alex Andrade versus Cris Dosev.  In the northern part of District 1--it is Mike Hill versus Michelle Salzman.  

My own District 1 Commissioner's race is surely drawing interest--as all four candidates are running hard, advertising, and campaigning diligently.  This particular race ends on election night, 10 days from now, and the candidate in this race with a plurality of the votes at the end will be commissioner for the next 51 months.  Not a majority, no runoffs, but a plurality takes the checkered flag in 10 days.

Regardless of any of this, one very important fact to note about these local office primary contests is that these off-cycle, non-presidential primary elections typically have notoriously low voter participation-----Always less than 1/3 of eligible voters historically in Escambia County.  Typically, these contests generate between 26-31% turnout.   This is lamentable--because the  County's District specific offices up for election on the ballot in these non-Presidential primary elections are the most important local positions (County Commissioner, School Board Member, ECUA Board Member)--most closely impacting citizens' lives.  And yet most who can vote in these contests, don't vote.  It's really an astonishing reality--but people do what people do.

So what does this all mean, anyway?

Well, here's what it means.  Four years ago, in this off-cycle, non-primary election just 27% of eligible voters cast their ballots county-wide.  The percentage of D1 voters was slightly above 27% in that 2016 contest.  In the 2012 non-Presidential primary election, just over 26% of eligible voters participated.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we would all be lottery millionaires by now--but my educated prediction based upon an exhaustive analysis of the 4 polls I have conducted in my race over the last 6 months, trends I'm seeing on the ground, and real time data that is  being provided on this primary election right now----leads me to believe that roughly 28-29% of eligible voters in D1 will actually cast ballots in this primary election by any means (early, absentee, day of voting).

Now, if I am right in this prediction (which I believe I am)--this could mean that as of right now--- nearly 40% of the total ballots that will be cast in District 1 have already been cast.

And if the absentee ballots continue to pour in this week as they have been--and with early voting going strong for the next 7 days--It is not outside the realm of possibility that by one week from today as much as 55-65% of the total number of votes to be cast in this primary may have been cast--leaving potentially as small as a 35% of total to be cast remaining out on election day.

Imagine that--as much as 2/3 of the votes for an election day cast-----before election day?!?

Watch. 

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1

52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Live Stream This Wednesday--Discussing COVID-19 Impacts on Local Small Businesses with DC Reeves

 

We will be holding our 52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Event online this coming Wednesday, August 12.  We will be live at my Commissioner's Facebook page from 6:30-7:30 AM and we will be discussing the ongoing impact the COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our community.

We will have special guest DC Reeves, owner of Perfect Plain Brewery in Downtown Pensacola and Chief of Staff for the Studer Family of Companies, and director of The Spring--an incubator and mentorship program for small businesses.  DC will be discussing the impacts the economic shutdown for the Pandemic has had on his business and other downtown small businesses.

We will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the webinar to give updates on the county's ongoing efforts at mitigating this pandemic's impacts on our community. 

The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

 To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online this Wednesday!

51st Coffee With The Commissioner This Wednesday: COVID-19 and Impacts on Law Enforcement

What are the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on our local Law Enforcement?  Find out Wednesday as we discuss the Pandemic with Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan

We will be having our 51st Coffee with the Commissioner event this Wednesday morning, August 5th, from 6:30 to 7:30 AM live on Facebook.

As we have been doing, we will once again be focusing on the impacts the devastating COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our local community.

We have previously discussed the economic impacts, the impacts on our faith-based community, our schools, our tourism industry, small businesses, and of course--healthcare.

But what about Law Enforcement?

This week, we will welcome special guest Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan to the program, and we will be discussing the challenges this Pandemic has placed upon the men and women of Law Enforcement.

I'll be asking questions and if you have questions for the Sheriff on this topic--please email them to me or post them as comments to this blog post.

some initial areas of discussion will include the following:

1.  What is the greatest single impact this Pandemic is having on the Escambia County Sheriff's Office?

2.  Is the wearing of PPE, and masks in particular, an difficult issue for the deputies, from a physical standpoint?

3.  Has staffing been an issue as members of the ECSO test positive--and how have you overcome this issue?

4.  Is there an measurable increase in petty thefts, burglaries, and larceny since the pandemic?

5.  With many our of work, and many stuck working from home--has there been an uptick in domestic calls?

6.  Has the pandemic necessitated major changes to any particular aspects of the  work your deputies do for the citizens of Escambia County?

7.  In the unlikely event the Governor shuts our economy down again--many believe this will increase crime as folks will become desperate for necessities.  With the unemployment numbers rising and the economy in deep recession already--is this assumption on crime increasing correct in your opinion?  and if so--how can we get ahead of this?

I look forward to an interesting discussion on these topics Wednesday.  In addition to the Sheriff, we will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the call to give an update on the impacts of the Pandemic on Escambia County.

I will ask the salient questions that everyone is asking me.

It will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.

Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

"See You" online this Wednesday!