Escambia County Leading MANY other Large Counties in Wage Growth! Leading Mobile in Job Growth!

Dr. Rick Harper addresses the NAIOP luncheon at the Pensacola Yacht Club 5-24-2023 and provided some significant, positive data on our economic development achievements locally.

At a NAIOP Luncheon I had the opportunity to attend yesterday afternoon at the Pensacola Yacht Club, two speakers gave presentations on the state of the economy and the banking system locally and nationally with an emphasis on where we are now and where we are headed in this uncertain economy.

The first speaker was Heath Jordan, the Chief Investment Officer with Trustmark Bank.  His presentation was on the state of the banking system nationwide and in our region post the Covid pandemic.  He went into great detail about how the Federal Reserve handled the Covid shutdown, and he related that he feels the actions taken prevented a depression.  The actions taken led to "lots of cash sloshing around in the nations's economy" he stated.  This led to large individual (uninsured) deposits at some banks that combined with those same banks' investments in long horizon financial instruments  led to a perfect storm of rapid withdrawals that outpaced the investment returns thus necessitating action be taken by federal regulators in order to prop up these banks.  In particular he was speaking of the recent collapses of Silicone Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.  While he feels there may be more banks going under in the 6-9 months ahead, he doesn't believe it will be a widespread phenomenon. "When it happens it will be quick, and it will be quiet" he stated.  According to Jordan-SVB and Signature both were heavily invested in Mortgage Backed Securites--insturments that pay higher dividents but take longer to mature.  With the inflation pressures building and interest rates rising--large deposit holders (uninsured) taking out all of their money outpaced the banks' ability to recapitalize quickly enough to remain solvent. How does that happen?  Jordan held up his phone as he stated, dryly, "This is the reason why....customer ability to withdraw money outpaces the Fed's ability to respond/act." Jordan concluded his remarks stating that he feels a credit slump is coming as the interest rates rise-- but overall he seemed optimistic on our area long term.

Next up was Dr. Rick Harper, Economic advisor with Triumph Gulf Coast.  His presentation had the room listening intently as he started the talk with a bit of humor "The economic situation continues to be ...... interesting" as he threw up a graph on the screen.  But then he continued with some very, very good news.  According to Harper (quoting directly from a news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) "Of the 356 largest counties in the United States--Escambia County ranked #22 among all of them for wage growth year over year."  (I subsequently emailed Dr. Harper for the source document and his power point--because that information as well as the balance of his presentation-- was amazingly profound---and a huge justification for the work we do in economic development locally).  

Some other Key Takeaways from Dr. Harper's presentation:

--Escambia County and Pensacola are outpacing Mobile Alabama in terms of job growth--with our area adding 44,200 non-farm jobs to Mobile's 10,500 from January of 1990 to April of 2023 (29.2% growth here, 5.8% in Mobile)

--Construction costs and other factors are damaging to home affordability (costs up 50% compared to  7-8 years ago) 

--Property Insurance prices (state specific to Florida) showing no sign of a "let up."

--Florida leads the nation in year over year population growth (1.9% 2021 to 2022)

--Homeowner equity is very high and debt service is historically low--a good thing

--The Pensacola area ranks #15 out of ALL metropolitan areas in the country in rental price increases from 2020 to 2022 at a 23% increase (affecting housing affordability) 

--Housing prices have grown 6.9% from 2022-2023--exacerbating affordability.

--We have a housing shortage and need to build more.  Absent that, governments should consider allowing greater density, accessory dwelling units, and looking at easing parking regulations/requirements to ease the supply issues.

Dr. Harper also suggested he sees signs of a recession coming--however he was quick to also say he feels confident Florida will weather it far better than other parts of the country because of our low unemployment, tax structure, and growth.

During the Q&A toward the end of the session I had the opportunity to ask Dr. Harper what would happen to the economy and the banking system locally in Pensacola if the Federal Government defaults due to a failure by congress and the white house to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling?  

"They have to solve it, otherwise it will be rising interest rates and chaos" he stated.

Check out Dr. Harper's Power Point here.

So What is Going On With This Economy Locally?

Ahead of my 69th Coffee with the Commissioner event Tomorrow Morning, I have been researching issues related to the economy which I'll be discussing with my guest Todd Thomson, President and CEO of the Chamber of Commerce.

One of the issues I will discuss with him is the labor participation rate and how it is impacting the workforce locally.

In Thomson's op-ed from a few weeks back, he brings this issue up as a problem for local businesses:  they can't find employees to fill the positions they have for their business operations locally.

But why?  That's the million dollar question.

According to Jeff Dyer, workforce development specialist with Florida West, with whom I have been speaking on this topic, the total labor force is actually at an all-time high with 147,000 citizens employed in Escambia County currently.

And, according to Dyer, the participation rate is actually up to around 61% locally--a figure that has remained relatively constant over the last 10 years--with the exception of 2020 when the pandemic first hit and the resultant recession spiked unemployement to 12% locally and created a dip in participation down to 58.83%.

These numbers mirror what is happening nationally, according to the labor participation rate chart on the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

So with unemployment locally hovering at about 3.7%, with 147,000 citizens working, and only about 5,500 citizens unemployed and actively seeking work-----why are so many jobs---especially the jobs that require very little skill---going unfilled locally?

I mean, even with 147,000 working--many (tens of thousands) of those citizens are commuters from Santa Rosa and Baldwin Counties.  Okaloosa probably as well.  So with a population of 320,000---how many Escambians are not working "by choice?"

Are federal entitlement policies that paid/are paying folks to not work hurting our employers locally?

These are  the questions I want to ask Todd Thomson tomorrow and are among several I will throw his way.

What is going on with this economy locally--and why are so many NOT re-entering the workforce?

What are Other Florida Counties Doing on Masks?

See for yourself in this chart, below, that was sent to all commissioners by staff......

50th Coffee with the Commissioner this Week: 2 Medical Doctors including a Pulmonologist Discussing COVID-19

We will have two (2) medical doctors on our live coffee on Wednesday
discussing the COVID-19 Pandemic

Our 50th Coffee with a Commissioner will be a webinar to watch this Wednesday morning!

I will have two medical doctors on the call, including a local pulmonologist  who has been in practice for 30 years locally and who has worked at all three local Escambia County hospitals.

I had a great conversation this Saturday morning with him, and he has agreed to join us on the call Wednesday morning to give an update on current conditions in our hospitals and the further actions he believes we need to take to reduce transmission levels locally.

We will also have Baptist Hospital in Pensacola CEO Mark Faulkner aboard to discuss the conditions at Baptist Hospital and how his organization is handling the pandemic locally.  County Administrator Janice Gilley will also be on the call, as will be County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore.

I will ask the questions of the doctors and specialists the folks have been asking me--so it will be a good program to watch this Wednesday:

1. What does recovery look like for our local patients?
2. How long does the virus stay in the systems of recovered patients?
3.  Are our hospitals in danger of being over-run by COVID-19 patients?
4.  What current treatments are working best?  Convalescent plasma?  Remdesivir?  Steroids?
5.  Are masks more important than hygiene, hand washing, and social distancing?
6.  Are mask mandates absolutely necessary in your professional opinion(s)?
7.  Do we have the staff locally to handle the loads of patients?
8.  Is it safe to open schools for in-person instruction in August?
9.  How long is a recovered patient contagious--or are they contagious?
10.  How long will this pandemic last in your opinion--and can we beat it?

I will ask the salient questions that everyone is asking me.

It will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.

Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

"See You" online this Wednesday!

Mandatory Masking Policies Draw Lawsuits Statewide

The County Attorney's Office compiled the chart, above, based upon some current litigation swirling around the state regarding governmental "mandatory masking" blanket policies.

Currently, the circuit courts and at least one federal court have sided with the governmental entities.  The thought is that during the pandemic the courts are balancing the states of emergency and protection of health and outweighing the freedom of choice arguments from those opposed to mandatory mask ordinances.

But most of these are at the very early stages and all appeals are not concluded----so who knows where all of this will land at the conclusion of all appeals?

Meanwhile, in Escambia County we have not issued a mandatory mask wearing ordinance and therefore we will not be incurring costs as these other jurisdictions are currently.

When Exceptions Swallow Rules.........

Which is worse--mandating the wearing of a disposable mask over and over and over, day after day, and improperly to boot-----or allowing this improper wear to "meet" the standard of an ill-conceived, non-enforceable ordinance?  (or both?) 

We find ourselves in the midst of a battle of wills over the wearing of masks here locally.

The city went headlong into this issue by "mandating" all citizens wear masks indoors. So did the city of Milton----and then Milton's City Council promptly and resoundingly walked their mandate back.  Actually it got yanked back and thrown in the garbage can.

Santa Rosa County has no mandate for mask wearing either.

But Pensacola has a mandate, brought forward by the mayor initially.  Then the city council doubled down and made it an ordinance with teeth with financial penalties for citizens that don't wear masks--because the city's ordinance requires citizens to wear masks!

Well, wait a minute.  Just most citizens in most places.  With some exceptions. 

Well, realistically--with a lot of exceptions.  For instance, now we are told that students who come back to classes in buildings and schools within the city limits will not be wearing masks.  At least they won't be mandated to do it.  Apparently, the city's got an exception for that.

And those who attend churches in the city limits don't have to wear masks.  There's an exception for that, too.

And outdoors--well, outdoors in socially distanced settings masks are not required.  There's an exception for that.

Demonstrators that gather in numbers, not wearing masks and not socially distancing--is there an exception for this?  Not sure--but regardless--it's happening, people are congregating and exercising their freedom of assembly and not wearing masks while not socially distancing-- and it is not being enforced.  Perhaps there is a tacit "exception" for that, too?

And surely the virus knows these exceptions and will ensure transmission is ceased during periods of time and under these circumstances when the city's ordinance provides exceptions, right?

Sure.

What about at a restaurant in the city?  Indoors, the ordinance says wear a mask.  But when the food comes--or when the drinks come--everyone at the table can "unmask" to eat and drink--there is an exception for that.  So half the people--eating and drinking together in small groups and large groups will be masked, and the other half will be unmasked.  Or, should diners and drinkers keep their masks on, and cut holes in their disposable surgical masks that they wear over and over--and put a straw through the hole and drink their beverages, wines, and bottled beverages through the straws whilst keeping the masks in place?  That'd be a weird look, like a scene out of the original 1977 Star Wars Cantina Band scene....  Same thing for food.  Keep the masks on and pull them to the side, quickly, and spoon feed without spilling it all over the inside of the mask.  That could get messy.....And if you cant do this--then take the masks off between bites and gulps.   I'm sure the airborne viruses and germs know the difference and politely and obediently do not disburse while citizens in the city limits eat and drink, right?  The microbes wait till the masks go back on.  Sure thing.  You bet.

So yes, technically, there is an ordinance in the city mandating that citizens wear masks.  Most of the time.  With some exceptions--I mean, LOTS of exceptions.  And with little enforcement.  And with no standards.   Right.  Check.

Well what about the masks and how they are worn?  Surely there must be standards in the ordinance the city wants us to adopt, right?

Answer:  Nah, just have a "face-covering" of any variety.  Yeah--just something, anything, just a

To Mask, or Not to Mask!

That is the question........

And now, I am getting it from both directions.  "Make Masks Mandatory!" is the flavor from one side.

"Don't take away our Freedom--don't make masks mandatory!" is what I am hearing from the other side.

Meanwhile--the Escambia Board of County Commissioners does NOT have this for action at our upcoming meeting--(although it may be brought before the board as an "add-on" by a member.....)

Meanwhile, here is an example of a thoughtful back and forth email exchange between a constituent and I on this topic from this morning............intelligent, thoughtful, respectful, cordial, un-emotional..

"Mr. Bergosh,

Usually I write to you about XXXXXX. But tonight I am writing to you as someone retired from healthcare. Forty three years actually.  Thirty three of those running a clinical laboratory.  I have been through Aids, Ebola, Swine flu, and many other similar outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.  So I am very familiar with what the right thing to do is regarding curbing the rising infections.  

 Mayor Robinson should be commended for implementing mandatory masks.   While our Governor and President do nothing.

The Governor's statement the other day stating people will just need to do the right thing stunned me. Well if people always did the right thing we wouldn't need laws.  It could even be said we wouldn't be in the middle of a pandemic if people did the right thing.  How many laws have been passed to protect people from themselves?  Wearing seat belts, no texting and driving, no drinking and driving.......to name a few.

I ask you and the other commissioners to please follow Mayor Robinson's lead.  Make face masks mandatory in Escambia county. There is absolutely no reason a business should have to shut down if only everyone would social distance and wear masks in public places.  South Korea and Japan are excellent examples of that.

Regards,

XXX XXXXXXX"

My response:

"XXX-

Thank you for the email, and I cannot wait until XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX!

About the mask wearing:  There have been rumors circulating about The Escambia Board of County Commissioners making mask wearing mandatory—however this has not been brought forward onto our next agenda for July 2^nd by either the staff or the chairman Steven Barry.  I understand the city has gone that direction (mandatory mask wearing).

Nevertheless----I am studying all sides of this topic in the event it does come before us as an add on to the agenda.  Full disclosure—I am getting PASSIONATE pleas on both sides of this issue so I am going to look at this particular issue very analytically—not emotionally.

To help with my decision making—I will have a special “Coffee with the Commissioner” event this Wednesday morning online on my Facebook site from 6:30-7:30 AM.  My guests will be the CEO’s of all three local hospitals—Baptist, Sacred Heart, and West Florida.  They know I will come prepared with questions for them about the wear/don’t wear masks in public question—as well as other issues about capacity in their respective hospitals and ventilator and ICU capacity.  It will be a worthwhile watch this Wednesday morning if you are available.  It will be live on my commissioner’s Facebook page here  https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

One issue that stands out initially and immediately to me is the fact that nobody is wearing masks properly—and nobody is specifying what types of masks should be worn.  They should be single-use---and the surgical masks I see folks wearing are not masks that protect the wearer from COVID-19-----it says so right on the box packaging.  Yet I see folks wearing these very same ineffective disposable masks over and over and over—placing them on the rear-view mirror then re-using them again and again—touching the contaminated masks then touching their faces as well as common use items in the grocery stores, retail stores, playground equipment, door-handles etc.  This behavior worries me—because I believe this actually exacerbates—not

A Pop-Up Drive-In Movie Theater Coming to District 1?

If all appropriate permits can be obtained, as appears likely, a "pop-up" drive-in movie operation will be coming to District 1 as early as this week! 

There is a plan in the works by a very innovative local company to bring a "pop-up" drive-in movie theater to Escambia County's District 1 at the Pensacola Interstate Fairgrounds.
Initially, the operator of the company bringing this idea will hold a couple of "soft-opening" nights this coming week, where some family-friendly fare will be shown on the 30-foot screen.

The first offering, tentatively planned for this Thursday evening (for invited guests only to beta-test the concept) will be the classic Tom Hanks film "Big."

Eventually, the plan is to have two screens up at the fairground, with a modest "per-car" charge for tickets.

The Key to this concept's success in this Pandemic-stricken environment---contact-less interaction.

According to operator/entrepreneur Mike Silver, who's company grew and ultimately graduated from the County Economic Development small business incubator "Co-Lab" on Garden Street---  "We want to do it in a manner where tickets can be purchased online or via an app--and scanned through a closed car window as the car enters the theater area."  He continued "We will have offerings from one or more stand alone snack-bars that patrons can also purchase on an app---and runners on golf carts will deliver the snacks to the patrons' cars--and the movie's sound will come right through customers' car radios"

The fairground and its operators are excited about bringing this to our area, according to Mr. Silver.

I have written a letter of support, as one member of the Board and as the member who represents the fairground area of the county,  for this idea and concept that Mr. Silver will receive this afternoon from my office aide Debbie Kenney.

This is entertainment that a family can enjoy, getting folks with "cabin fever" out of their homes and outdoors--where safe social distancing will be maintained--I think the idea is outstanding and that it will be very well-received by the residents and families of District 1!

How Many Positive COVID-19 Cases Does Escambia County Really Have?

As of right now, at this very moment,  the state of Florida is reporting that Escambia County has 118 positive cases of COVID-19 in our county.

But is that number even real?

The very latest total specimen collection report we as commissioners have received is posted below.  It was sent out at 8:38 PM last night.  It has data through Friday April 3rd reflected.

Now, looking at this data presented above, we see that in Escambia County a total of 3,898 specimens have been collected (COVID-19 Tests administered).  And this data does not include the latest positive and negative results data from Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this past week.

Nevertheless, we have administered 3,898 total tests in Escambia County as of Friday (and probably more yesterday).

But looking again at the latest information reported on Florida's "Dashboard" just this morning, below, we see a skewed number again, the "total tests" number is only 1,510....

So why does there continue to be a delta between the number of tests we know we have administered locally  and the "total tests" metric on the state's dashboard?  Right now that delta (difference between the number of tests we know we have administered locally compared with what the state is listing as "total tests" in Escambia County) is at least 2,388.   Why has this lag in reporting continued?  More importantly, where are the results for these 2,388 tests we know we have conducted, and why have these results not been reported to the state's dashboard?

We know the test results are coming back faster now; the Mayor of Pensacola got his results back in a little over a day, and others who have been tested last week are getting results reported back within 48 hours.  I am personally aware of this happening.  And the testers who administer the drive through swabs are telling the patients to expect results within 24-48 hours.  With this said--- why does this delta in the figures continue, and why is it growing as compared to the last several times I have measured it here and here?

This is one of the lingering questions I will be asking the expert medical panelists this coming Wednesday morning when I host them on my virtual 34th Coffee with the Commissioner online event.

We were told at Thursday's BCC meeting that the state's "total tests" figure on their dashboard actually, simply means "test results received."  So why not simply call it that?!?

The current nomenclature the state is using creates confusion and uncertainty and is needlessly vague.

But setting that aside, here is what really concerns me:

Seeing the trends statewide---the percentage of positive test results is running at nearly 11%.  The percentage for Escambia County--if we look at the total number of "test results received" and the concomitant percentage of positive test results reported locally as a percentage of the total-- is currently running 7.8%--less than the state average percentage.

So here is the deal.  Is it irrational to believe, knowing we have 2,388 test results not yet reported, that we actually have 7.8% of those tests probably coming back positive?  I don't believe it is irrational.  I believe it is logical.

So how many positive COVID-19 cases does Escambia County really have at the moment--taking the total reported and adding in 7.8% of the total tests conducted but not yet received?

A logical "deduction" , based upon the data and statistics as we currently know know them to be, would be our total  real number could be actual 304 Positive COVID-19 Cases in Escambia County Presently!

Yes, it could be lower.  It could be.

But logic and reason dictates that based upon the evidence the number locally is at least 304 or more.

Join us for our 34th Coffee with the Commissioner, Online, This Wednesday Morning 6:30-7:30AM

We are having a virtual "Coffee with the Commissioner" event this Wednesday morning.  This will be our office's 34th such event.

With the Chinese Coronavirus/COVID-19 Pandemic happening worldwide, and because of the guidance from our President and our Governor--we are doing these events online now.  We look forward to the day when we can once again do these meetings in person out in our community---but for now we have to do these virtually, online.

But the great news is that under this format--- you and everyone else can now more easily participate in real time and ask your questions of the panel I am putting together for this event.

Just get your questions ready and log in Wednesday morning and come over to my facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/ ,

This week we will have the following special guests on the ZOOM call to discuss our local response to the COVID-19 crisis:

Dawn Rudolph, President and CEO of Ascension Sacred Heart Hospital Pensacola
Justin Labrato,  President of Ascension Medical Group
Janice Gilley, Escambia County Administrator
Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency Management Director

We will stream this live and you can comment on the string with your question (s) for the panelists, or you can email them to me in advance to district1@myescambia.com or you can just watch and listen to the information that will be put out regarding this situation we are all in as a result of the virus.

Check out last week's Coffee with Mark Faulkner, President and CEO of Baptist Healthcare, HERE

Check out our previous Coffee with Dr. John Lanza, Director of the Escambia Health Dept.  HERE

See you online this Wednesday morning!