What does the Data Mean?!?

These are not the droids you're looking for.....

 

This morning I was flipping through the radio dial and heard the tail-end of an interview about the alcohol ordinance on Pensacola Beach's Quietwater Beach Boardwalk.  This revised ordinance-- that I voted against --sought to continue an open-container prohibition on the boardwalk.  The sloppily concocted revision inadvertently allowed open containers in the parking lot and on sidewalks--an unintended consequence--so this ordinance is once again on the agenda for this week.  A couple of things stated during this morning's  interview that were incorrect grabbed my attention....

First off--it was stated that the revised ordinance that was enacted last month did not/does not go into effect until June 1st.  This is incorrect.  According to our attorney, once the board voted upon the revised ordinance, and once that ordinance was transmitted to and received by the Department of State in Tallahassee--it went into effect right then-at that moment.  It has been in force for about two-three weeks now and it will be in force until the next revision is voted upon by the BCC and received by Tallahassee---which will not happen before this weekend's Memorial Day festivities at the beach.  That's number 1.

The second inaccurate statement that was made in this interview was that "One Commissioner (me) was purposely misrepresenting the crime data."  This is untrue.  I am not misrepresenting anything. When this matter was first brought back to the BCC when several local business owners and another commissioner did not want the ordinance to sunset, crime stats were provided as back up to us to help us in our decision making process.

A very topical and cursory glance at two years' worth of data showed that several categories of crimes not only did not go down--- indeed, several categories went up since enactment of the open container ban on the boardwalk.

Several went up significantly.

Now, when the discussion was first had at the agenda review, this initial data was touted by one podium speaker and two commissioners as "proof" that the ban was making the boardwalk safer.  Specifically, these individuals touted "fewer fights and affrays" from the data provided by the Sheriff's office  as proof that the ban was/is working...and that the ordinance should not sunset but rather should be extended.

So I immediately requested several more years' worth of data so a better, more valid analysis could be made. 

Once I received this data, I performed an analysis and I shared these results with my counterparts at meetings and also on this blog here and here. 

Apparently, it is perfectly acceptable to look at one category of crime that appears to have decreased slightly and marginally since the ban (affray)--and it is scientifically sound to say this infraction's decrease is attributable to the ban on open containers being enforced on the boardwalk. 

However, apparently, it is unacceptable to look at the other categories of crimes that have skyrocketed since the ban was enacted (DUI's, Battery on LEOs, non-family disturbances, substance abuse, under 21year old DUI's, miscellaneous crimes, etc. etc.) and draw any connection whatsoever to the alcohol ban at the boardwalk.

Here's the thing, you can't have it both ways.  We either look at all the data or we look at none of it.  I'm not going to suffer fools and stand by as "some" data is cherry picked and paraded around to

Open Containers of Alcohol on Quietwater Beach Part III--Nobody is Happy with the Ordinance Revision

Our newly enacted, amended open-container ordinance for Quietwater Beach  is coming back to the BCC for additional modification next week.

Last month, the board nearly voted to continue the ban on open containers on the boardwalk for an additional two years--despite presentation of data that showed many categories of crime had increased since the ban was enacted.

When it became apparent a two year continuation would have failed by a 3-2 margin, the board made a fumbling, sloppy attempt at an on-the-fly compromise position:  Alcohol would once again be permitted on the boardwalk, but only from 10PM to 6:00AM.  I didn't support this for numerous reasons which I have expressed to the media, on this blog, and also at the meeting.  The compromise passed 4-1 with me voting NO.

...the very next day we started hearing about the unintended consequences of what we had done from our attorney and from the Sheriff's office;  we had crafted the ordinance such that it was vague and ambiguous about the legality of open containers on sidewalks and parking lots beach-wide.  Now we had to go fix our newly enacted rule because we violated one of the tenets of good governance by making things worse, not better, with our actions.

This is why it is dangerous to try to legislate on the dais, on the fly.  The go-cart one tries to assemble while travelling down the hill often crashes, just like rules rushed through fail.  Here's why:

1.  It is an undisputed, known fact of reality that the ban did not reduce, but rather exacerbated the most dangerous criminal offenses like DUIs and Battery on LEO's, so the ordinance should have  sunsetted and a redoubled effort at enforcement should have been made specifically targeting transgressors rather than all of us.

2.  When the amended motion was made, I knew it was fatally flawed because there is a tremendous difference between day drinkers and night time hooligan partiers;  the open container hours on the boardwalk should have been during the day from, say, 10:00AM to 6:00PM--with a prohibition if absolutely necessary taking place from 6:00PM to 10:00AM.  I (and many others) feel the ordinance got these hours backwards because the Geico Owl and everybody else that knows

Nobody is Going to Like This.......

Nobody is going to like the ordinance the BCC passed tonight regarding open containers of alcohol on the Quietwater Beach Boardwalk.

I didn't like the initial motion which was to continue an ordinance banning open containers of alcohol on the boardwalk for an additional (2) two years time.  I voiced my opposition and so did two of my colleagues.

I've given my reasons for opposing this ban at two previous meetings and here on this blog as well;  in a nutshell, the premise for making the restriction was purportedly to give a year under the ordinance to collect data showing this would be beneficial.  The data shows this ban increased crime--but nobody wanted to seriously dig into that.....

The motion was then restated and modified to a (1) one year continuance of the ban at Quietwater beach.

With that motion hanging out there and no clear consensus, the discussion turned to a further modification of the proposed ordinance which stated the ban would be in place for one year and only in force from 6:00AM to 10:00PM at the boardwalk--in an effort to keep the ban in place in order to keep the atmosphere on the boardwalk "family friendly" during the daytime and early evening hours.

 From 10:00 PM-6:00AM 7 days a week, the ordinance will not apply and open containers of alcohol

What Does a Careful Examination of the Beach Crime Data Analysis Reveal?

The crime that is spiking most significantly since this alcohol-ban has been enacted at Quietwater beach boardwalk is also the most dangerous crime, the one most likely--statistically--to lead to a citizen fatality.......

Looking at the data gleaned from crime reports for a one-year period since the open container ban at Quietwater beach boardwalk was enacted last year does not provide evidence that this ordinance "lowered crime." 

 Disturbingly--when the average number of crimes in each category of infraction from the three years prior to the alcohol ban is averaged, and then compared to one year's data post-alcohol ban--the average crime category increases outpaced the decreases by more than 30% points!

Some categories of crimes are down if a 1-year snapshot is taken--but many are way up. Seeing an additional 66 DUI incidents unfold since the open container ban was enacted is much more alarming to me than seeing "AFFRAY-RIOT" incidents decrease from an average of 3.6 per year down to 1.  That change is insignificant, in my estimation, when compared to the dramatic increases in the DUIs at the beach since we banned open-carry on the boardwalk.

The most dangerous crime, the one that leads to one-third of the nation's traffic deaths yearly (10,000 on average nationwide) ---DUI--- has SPIKED since the enactment of this ordinance:
--up 132% beach-wide post-open container ban! (average 50 incidents per year, 2013-2015, jumped to 116 incidents in 2016 post alcohol ban)
--up  75%  at Quietwater beach alone!

This number alone is very disturbing to me because I have three kids that drive.  They are young. They go to the beach frequently.  I know that God forbid something tragic happens to them (or any young driver in our community)--more than likely it would be a traffic collision, and nationwide a third of these are alcohol related.

The crime that is spiking most significantly since this ban has been enacted is also the most dangerous crime, the one most likely--statistically--to lead to a citizen fatality! 

Why are DUI's spiking?  Why are Batteries up 21%, why are Batteries against LEOs up 34%, why are family disturbances up 81%, why are non-family disturbances up, why are miscellaneous crimes up 180% and DUI's up 132%--all of these beach-wide since our open container ban at Quietwater beach was enacted?  Why?

I know why. 

When we severely curtail a certain activity in one area, it spreads to other areas. When you take the service and monitoring of alcoholic beverage service to the public out of supervised areas where operators have strict rules on service and liability--increases in some bad behaviors will happen!   When you squeeze a balloon full of water on one side, it explodes on the other.

This isn't just an opinion;  I have worked in the food and beverage industry for 25 years, I've bartended for 18 years, worked in nightclubs, and I have owned four sports bars and a restaurant.  I

More Beach Crime Data

After receiving additional crime data specific to Quietwater beach and then separate criminal information about the Pensacola Beach "commercial core" area as a whole, I was able to conduct a more detailed analysis of what the statistics look like graphically over time. 

The data provided by the sheriff's office is limited to a four year look, with the first three years (2013-2015) being three years' worth of data that was compiled prior to enactment of the open container ban at Quietwater beach. 

The 2016 data is for the period after the alcohol ban on the boardwalk was enacted. 

As I stated in previous blog posts on this matter--I'm not a fan of limiting citizens' rights, particularly on a county-owned specialty center that upon which, under Florida statutes, open containers of alcohol are allowed and subject to regulation by the county. 

As I have stated at the meetings and also on blog posts, I need to see compelling data that supports continuing this prohibition before I will support extending this ordinance.  Otherwise, in my estimation, it should sunset and efforts should be concentrated on enforcing existing ordinances and punishing those who violate law--instead of throwing a huge wet-blanket ordinance over EVERY citizen (the vast majority of whom obey the law) by prohibiting open containers on our specialty center, the Quietwater beach boardwalk.

Our neighbor to the East, Destin, has a specialty center that permits open containers.  The South Harbor Festive Marketplace is a HUGE success over in Destin.  How is it that they can manage their specialty center and allow open containers while maintaining a friendly atmosphere---but we can't?

Regardless, that question is a rhetorical one.  The data, which is what should matter, does not point to this ordinance as the panacea that is lowering crime.  Several important categories have shown huge percentage increases since enactment of the open container ordinance.  Notably--DUIs are up 132% beach-wide and 75% at Quietwater beach alone since enactment of this ordinance.  Battery and Disturbance (family and non-family) infractions are way up as well since this ordinance was enacted.  Careful consideration must be given the important decision that is coming up on this matter, as we should not rush to continue this prohibition if this exacerbates the instances of criminal activity on the beach...

The data that I have illuminated in figures 1 and 2 below, created by averaging the infractions in the three-year, pre-open container ordinance and comparing this average in every crime category to the 2016 data (post ordinance) numbers and then calculating the change in each category--shows some alarming trends.....

Figure 1: a four year analysis of crime statistics from the Pensacola Beach commercial core  (data provided by Escambia Sheriff's Office)



Figure 2: a four year analysis of crime statistics from Escambia County's Quietwater Beach specialty center (data provided by Escambia Sheriff's Office)