I am one member of a five person board. The opinions I express on this forum are mine only, and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Escambia County Staff, Administrators, Employees, or anyone else associated with Escambia County Florida. I am interested in establishing this blog as a means of additional transparency to the public, outreach to the community, and information dissemination to all who choose to look. Feedback is welcome, but because public participation is equally encouraged, appropriate language and decorum is mandatory.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
What Prices are Large-Acre Properties in Beulah near OLF 8 Commanding over the Last 18 Months?
....There have been three large-acre site sales (30 Acres +)in the immediate vicinity (within 1 mile) of the OLF 8 site in Beulah over the last 18 Months. This is not surprising to me, because I have watched this area explode over the last 14 years as a resident of Beulah right across from OLF 8.
Prices are going up like a rocket and properties are moving.
In spite of this fact, there has nevertheless been some noise put out recently by some individuals that "OLF 8 is only worth $4.75 Million." Amazingly, some people actually believe this nonsense.
This misinformation is apparently based upon a badly flawed appraisal from nearly 6 years ago...and this opinion obviously disregards recent, actual sales data. This opinion also fails to look at a more recent, yet still obsolete, appraisal from two years ago....
That latest appraisal of OLF 8 from May of 2016 shows a value of $17.8 Million for the 636 Acre OLF 8 site. That's a lot more than $4.75 Million!
But wait--- it gets better....
In the two years since the creation of that May 2016 appraisal showing that OLF 8 is worth nearly $18 Million--there have been a number of large-acre site sales in Beulah, within a one-mile radius of OLF 8. And guess what?--the prices are skyrocketing.
Take a look at the facts that you can independently verify at the Escambia Property Appraiser's Website
--November 2016--35.02 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by the Residences at Nature Creek LLC for $2.5 Million ($71,400 per acre)
--June 2017--52 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by HAD Land Development Group Partners I LLC for $4.0Million ($76,923 per acre)
--September 2017--174 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by Pathstone FL 2017 LLC for $8.25 Million ($47,413 per acre)
So are we all to suspend our belief in the free-market economy, forget Adam Smith and the invisible hand 101, forget Commercial Real Estate 101, --just because someone says this property is only worth $4.75 Million?? Apparently, there are some that would answer the hypothetical above in the affirmative....
But here is reality:
We are seeing that the private market has signaled large-acre sites on 9-mile road in Beulah are worth about $65,000 per acre now in this market--based upon recent "actual" sales.
Taking this actual sales data and multiplying it by the size of the cleared, mostly high and dry acreage of OLF 8--we get a gross value of $41,340,000.
So how does anyone with any sophistication whatsoever not see this? It is simple arithmetic based upon real sales data from recent real transactions.
But if we set this real data aside and instead choose to believe that the 636 acre site is, indeed, only worth $7,468.55 per acre ($4.75 Million Divided by 636)--then what is the explanation for three private market firms paying more than $40,000.00 more than value, per acre, for the land they recently purchased--land that in several cases was not even cleared??
Answer: The private market would not support these prices if this real estate was not worth this valuation at this moment in time.
So I'd simply ask anyone who will countenance the ridiculous notion that the 636 acre site in Beulah in Spring of 2018 is only worth $4.75 Million this simple question: If you are truly, objectively trying to argue, in light of the facts, that this site is only worth $4.75 Million-- on what DATA do you base this opinion and more importantly how in the world could you be so very badly wrong if you have even a basic understanding of economics and the private real estate market?