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I am one member of a five person board. The opinions I express on this forum are mine only, and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Escambia County Staff, Administrators, Employees, or anyone else associated with Escambia County Florida. I am interested in establishing this blog as a means of additional transparency to the public, outreach to the community, and information dissemination to all who choose to look. Feedback is welcome, but because public participation is equally encouraged, appropriate language and decorum is mandatory.








Sunday, March 18, 2018

What Prices are Large-Acre Properties in Beulah near OLF 8 Commanding over the Last 18 Months?

TRUE STORY: although the last 3 large-acre parcels in the area have sold for an average of $65,000.00 per acre--there are still some persons inaccurately espousing the flawed notion that OLF 8, a 636 acre site in the heart of Beulah, is only worth about $7,500.00 per acre...


....There have been three large-acre site sales (30 Acres +)in the immediate vicinity (within 1 mile) of the OLF 8 site in Beulah over the last 18 Months.  This is not surprising to me, because I have watched this area explode over the last 14 years as a resident of Beulah right across from OLF 8.

 Prices are going up like a rocket and properties are moving.

In spite of this fact, there has nevertheless been some noise put out recently by some individuals that "OLF 8 is only worth $4.75 Million."  Amazingly, some people actually believe this nonsense.

This misinformation is apparently based upon a badly flawed appraisal from nearly 6 years ago...and this opinion obviously disregards recent, actual sales data.  This opinion also fails to look at a more recent, yet still obsolete, appraisal from two years ago....

That latest appraisal of OLF 8 from May of 2016 shows a value of $17.8 Million for the 636 Acre OLF 8 site.  That's a lot more than $4.75 Million!

But wait--- it gets better....

In the two years since the creation of that  May 2016 appraisal showing that OLF 8 is worth nearly $18 Million--there have been a number of large-acre site sales in Beulah, within a one-mile radius of OLF 8.  And guess what?--the prices are skyrocketing.

Take a look at the facts that you can independently verify at the Escambia Property Appraiser's Website

--November 2016--35.02 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by the Residences at Nature Creek LLC for $2.5 Million ($71,400 per acre)

--June 2017--52 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by HAD Land Development Group Partners I LLC for $4.0Million ($76,923 per acre)

--September 2017--174 Acre Site in Beulah purchased by Pathstone FL 2017 LLC for $8.25 Million ($47,413 per acre) 

So are we all to suspend our belief in the free-market economy, forget Adam Smith and the invisible hand 101, forget Commercial Real Estate 101, --just because someone says this property is only worth $4.75 Million?? Apparently, there are some that would answer the hypothetical above in the affirmative....

But here is reality:

We are seeing that the private market has signaled large-acre sites on 9-mile road in Beulah are worth about $65,000 per acre now in this market--based upon recent "actual" sales.

Taking this actual sales data and multiplying it by the size of the cleared, mostly high and dry acreage of OLF 8--we get a gross value of  $41,340,000.

So how does anyone with any sophistication whatsoever not see this?  It is simple arithmetic based upon real sales data from recent real transactions.

But if we set this real data aside and instead choose to believe that the 636 acre site is, indeed, only worth  $7,468.55 per acre ($4.75 Million Divided by 636)--then what is the explanation for three private market firms paying more than $40,000.00 more than value, per acre, for the land they recently purchased--land that in several cases was not even cleared??

Answer:  The private market would not support these prices if this real estate was not worth this valuation at this moment in time.  

So I'd simply ask anyone who will countenance the ridiculous notion that the 636 acre site in Beulah in Spring of 2018 is only worth $4.75 Million this simple question:   If you are truly, objectively trying to argue, in light of the facts, that this site is only worth $4.75 Million-- on what DATA do you base this opinion and more importantly how in the world  could you  be so very badly wrong if you have even a basic understanding of economics and the private real estate market?

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Right. I can certainly do the Math...no brainer..

Anonymous said...

This "misinformation " is a poor attempt to try to make someone look bad..But it's like the emperor and his new set of clothes..Keep up the good work..(Save some trees too ;))

Anonymous said...

Imagine the Possibilities http://www.mccog.net/Eco%20Industrial%20Park%20Template.pdf

Anonymous said...

I know this is far fetched but hope you get the inspiration...Who says it has to be some ugly development? First start with a rename..rebrand..it's no longer OLF..It is __________?? a destination! http://www.neapolis.com/resources/downloads/Brochure.pdf

I am tired of the drama..hope the creativity kicks in. Good Luck.

Anonymous said...

I took a look at the facts, as you suggested:
Residence at Nature Creek--Cliff Mowe purchased this site in 2006 for $1.2M and then secured additional investors/developers to buy it from HIMSELF in 2016 for $2.5M; when all 214 lots are sold, the revenue will exceed $47M.
HAD Land Development--part of The Dawson Company, a major developer in Atlanta and elsewhere (including the Maritime Place Office Building, Downtown YMCA, and Southtowne Apartments); could they have big plans for this site to make big money to offset the cost of acquisition through high-density development? Could there be inside deals undisclosed to the public? Something caused them to overpay....
Pathstone--purchased by the land acquisition arm of a major developer in Baldwin Co, AL who is expanding to our area and will turn this site into a lucrative residential development built by DR Horton and/or Truland Homes.

Let's look at land sales compared to assessed land value:
Nature Creek--$0.6M -- $1.2M (200%)
3811 W Nine Mile--$0.8M -- $4M (500%)
Pathstone--$3.2M -- $8.2M (256%)
4810 W Nine Mile--$1.3M -- $3.3M (254%) --this one is significant, as the BCC accepted this value for their own land
OLF8--$4M -- $17.8M (445%) -- the only entity (other than Dawson) willing to overvalue the acquisition cost of land in this area is the BCC, who will not be able to obtain the same ROI as the private developers, which makes this even more of a headscratcher, unless, of course, they're trying to justify a deal gone bad (or maybe simply a scenario intended to line the fat pockets of a select few at the expense of taxpayers... not that it's ever happened before)

Is OLF8 worth more than $4.75M? Most likely, yes ...perhaps even as much as $10M, but without an "as is" market value appraisal (like the one done in 2013), all anyone can do is speculate. Is OLF8 worth $17.8M (and counting) as is? Could someone be trying to get one over on the public?