Jeff Bergosh Blog: COVID-19 in Escambia County Daily Snapshot: Still a Large Number of Test Results Outstanding

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I am one member of a five person board. The opinions I express on this forum are mine only, and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Escambia County Staff, Administrators, Employees, or anyone else associated with Escambia County Florida. I am interested in establishing this blog as a means of additional transparency to the public, outreach to the community, and information dissemination to all who choose to look. Feedback is welcome, but because public participation is equally encouraged, appropriate language and decorum is mandatory. Although this is not my campaign site for re-election--sometimes campaign related information will be discussed, therefore in an abundance of caution I add the following : Political Advertisement Paid for and Approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commissioner District 1

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

COVID-19 in Escambia County Daily Snapshot: Still a Large Number of Test Results Outstanding

As we see from our latest cumulative report sent to commissioners last night, above, we are starting to get better numbers in terms of positive and negative COVID-19 results reported. According to the chart above-- provided to us last night--there have been a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests conducted since the beginning of March in Escambia County. According to this chart, we have received results back for 2,631 of these tests resulting in 136 positive cases and 2,495 negative results. This still leaves a delta of 1,481 tests for which results have not yet been reported.

Taking just the data we have and what we know from this local report though, it appears to be encouraging news when looking at it from a percentage of tests producing positive results standpoint; Knowing we have 2,631 total test results reported back and knowing this has produced, thus far, just 136 positive cases, this results in just a little over a 5% infection rate per test result received. Right now, the state's dashboard (below) is reporting a 10.8% of test results received infection rate based upon the test results they have received back thus far. see dashboard below....

So our infection rate percentage per test result received back in Escambia appears to be less than half of the state's infection percentage per test. Can this be right?

But I still wonder why there is such a delta between what we know we have collected in tests here and what the state's dashboard reports just this morning (e.g. we know we have results locally for 2,631 tests, yet the state still erroneously lists that total number as 2,075--leaving a delta of 556 results known but not yet reported to the state.)

Equally troubling: We know we have conducted a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests yet the state is only reporting results for 2,075 of these. Why are the results for the other 2,037 tests not yet reported, why this continuing delta of thousands of test results?

Meanwhile, taking the local and more accurate numbers: If we know our infection rate is about 5% (Half of the state's percentage) and we know we are still awaiting 1,481 results--is it unreasonable to extrapolate that 5% of this still unreported test number will result in a corresponding 74 additional positive cases? If this is a rational and logical assumption based upon data we have at hand (and it is), then we can logicallly speculate that we have at least 74 additional positive cases locally that are not yet identified, added to the 141 total positives known as of today to get a total number of positives locally, potentially, of 215 cases.