COVID-19 in our Area--What's the Current Status at the Hospitals?

Panic citizens and they will consume what you are selling and disregard the financial manipulations and machinations occurring in our capitol that will have massive negative economic consequences for our nation for generations to come....

With national news broadcasts stoking the flames of fear and worry by reporting daily about the "Delta Variant" of COVID-19---some in our area are rightly concerned about a resurgence here.

The sneaky way actual facts are portrayed by the national media are apparently designed to scare the average citizen into a state of continuous panic---a tactic that takes a lot of concern, worry, and attention off of the printing presses in Washington DC--- which are churning out more and more debt from thin air daily.  Trillions and Trillions and Trillions....so keep folks worried and paniked, maybe they'll disregard the slow motion train wreck our national budgeting/monetay policy is becomming?  Surprise--they will and they do----- it works!  😏  Oh, and also, just to put a button on that--the media disavow and completely delegitimize the recognized, rational concept of inflation. They do it by omission----ignoring any mention of it in their coverage.   Nifty, right?  

So here's how they make it happen--here's their cookbook recipe:  1.) Find a city or area that is having an uptick in COVID -19 Delta Variant cases, 2.) show exhausted, demoralized hospital workers describing the conditions in that particular area, carefully and only talking PERCENTAGE increases in hospitalizations in such local areas-- and for the "coup de gras"--3.) conflate the local nature of the story's topic by throwing in the TOTAL NUMBER of new cases daily NATIONALLY at the very end of the one minute, thirty second package piece---and BANG---you've created a crisis!

Some out of touch, confused citizens that watch David Muir daily are probably bamboozled and actually concerned we're having 18,000 cases daily here in Florida!!....

And some constituents  have asked me about it, too--as some of the reporting on numbers, testing, and positivity seems to have been diminished locally.

So what is happening, right now, in the hospitals of Escambia County?

To find out--I called someone in the know, a well positioned hopital executive with whom I speak from time to time.  I called this individual to get the truth and to cut through the drama and the spin our media churns out nonstop on this topic beause it's a ratings bonanza to keep it roiling......

"Jeff, we are seeing an uptick locally, but nothing like what we had back in January and February."  He went on to describe that the numbers of hospitalizations have increased--but "only in the single digits..."

"We are not out of the single digits with patients hospitalized with COVID right now."  he stated.

When I asked him his assessment of the situation overall, he was optimistic.  "The only people we are seeing now, coming in needing hospitalization and the smaller numbers who are dying--- are those who are not vaccinated....everyone can get the vaccination now so it is a totally different situation than we had before-----much more manageable."

Yes, COVID-19 is real.  YES we are having an uptick locally but it is NOTHING like what we had at the beginning of the year.  The key difference is the vaccines.  They work, and they are working.

But they don't work for those who choose to remain "unvaccinated."

57th Coffee With The Commissioner Event this Wednesday Morning!

 

We will have our 57th Coffee with the Commissioner this Wednesday Morning live on Facebook.

The live stream will take place from 6:30 - 7:30 a.m.   Escambia County Administrator Janice Gilley, Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore, Baptist Health Care President and CEO Mark Faulkner,  Ascension Sacred Heart Hospital Pensacola President Dawn Rudolph and West Florida Hospital CEO Gay Nord will discuss the latest COVID-19 numbers and the impact on the local community. Discussion will include information about the status of the vaccination rollout in Escambia County, testing, and the overall pandemic's impacts on our area and our area's hospitals.

To join the meeting, go to the following Facebook page at 6:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 20 and watch the live stream: www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/.

Residents are encouraged to send virtual questions and comments they would like to discuss with District 1 Commissioner during the event through Facebook.

 For more information, contact District 1 Aide Debbie Kenney at 850-595-4910 or district1@myescambia.com. For District 1 updates, follow @MyDistrict1 on Twitter.

FASCINATING COVID-19 Data Points----Really Telling and Really Interesting

 

25% of nearly 3500 Asymptomatic patients tested for COVID-19 since Christmas are testing positive for the virus.  This is a very telling number.  What does that mean for the entire population though--could we use that percentage to extrapolate for our entire county's 320,000 residents?

Anyone and everyone can regurgitate FDOH statistics and data numbers.  Lots of people track the positivity numbers and the negative test results etc..  And that's all great.  I follow these numbers daily myself, as I have since this all started last year at this time.

But some interesting stats have been hard to get.

It took me 6 months of pressing to FINALLY get the "Recovered" number added to the County's COVID-19 dashboard.  I have subsequently taken heat because I pressed for that.  Some people don't like the term "recovered" because some COVID-19 patients don't die---yet they suffer significant ongoing medical issues.  That is a fair question and reasonable criticism--but I do not believe it means we shouldn't track the percentages and numbers that "Survive" a COVID-19 Diagnosis.  Perhaps we should change that term from "recovered" to "survived"--I don't know.  

Meanwhile--I recently heard from our Hospital administrators and testing partners that of 100% of nearly 5000 citizens locally in the 2-County Area (Santa Rosa and Escambia) being tested since Christmas----70% are asymptomatic and 30% present with flu-like symptoms.

So, naturally, I asked for the important data from those percentages:  What percentage of the 70% asymptomatic test subjects came back with a positive result for COVID-19?

"We are not tracking that" was the initial response.   "Why NOT?!?" was my reply.

So I asked for this number and I received some FASCINATING information back from the hospital staff with whom I spoke, with percentages, in my email box.  Full disclosure--the verbal disclaimer from these folks was that this was a rough order of magnitude, "Back of the envelope" number.  But still, it is interesting and it is a lot higher number than many would have suspected... From the email:

"Good morning, I wanted to give you the stats since Christmas that we discussed on the phone yesterday. Since Christmas, we still have about 70% of patients being COVID tested in Escambia County who do not have symptoms and 30% who do have symptoms. Of the people with symptoms - they are running at a 41% positive rate in Escambia county since Christmas. Of the people without symptoms - they are running at a 25% positive rate since Christmas." 

How Much Does it Cost to Provide a COVID-19 Test to an Escambia County Citizen?

What is the actual cost of performing a COVID-19 test on an Escambia County Citizen?

A fascinating discussion occurred late, as the BCC's regular meeting  dragged on past 9:00PM last night.

We were discussing CARES act allocations and we had several contracts to consider---including two that would have provided additional CARES act funding for COVID-19 tests.

We were contemplating approving a contract with Ascension Sacred Heart which would have provided $100 for each uninsured citizen that gets a COVID-19 test at one of Ascension's sites.  According to representatives from Ascension--they "Ate more than $1 Million" in revenue loss from COVID-19 tests administered thus far.  There was no elaboration on exactly what that means, though.  

Was this $1 Million + in losses unrecoverable from any federal source under CARES?  Was it $1 Million in actual costs or wass this $1 Million in retail or list cost?  I'd like to know this, but did not get clarification during the morning session.

When County staff was asked during the subsequent evening meeting "How much does Ascension pay for a COVID-19 test?"  The answer came back from staff that "They (Ascension) do not share this information."

Additional discussion among board members centered on the fact that Community Health Northwest is paid $37 per COVID-19 test in a separate agreement--which apparently covers their costs and allows them to provide these rapid tests to at-risk citizens.  This is quite a bit less than what Ascension was going to be getting.  Naturally, one would assume it must be less expensive for Ascension to administer these tests, given their size, economy of scale, and their organic, in-house testing capability?

So why do they need to get $100 per test? That was the question that went unanswered last night.

  Because nobody from Ascension came to answer--and because board members had questions--the contracts with Ascension for both the mass vaccinations AND the testing were not approved.  Hopefully over the next two weeks we can get some clarification from Ascension....because folks like me want to know---How much does it cost to provided a COVID-19 test to an Escambia County Citizen?

Who Should Administer the COVID-19 Vaccines Locally?

If we have to pay to do it locally--it is in our best interests to hire multiple outlets
to administer the COVID-19 vaccines.  It is not in the citizens' best interests
for the county to do an exclusive, sole-source procurement
with only ONE (1) of several qualified providers locally.  That's why tonight
we are NOT doing a sole-source deal.......

We all heard about Operation Warp Speed.

We heard the military would start mass-vaccinations nationwide.

Then we heard the state would handle the vaccinations.

But then reality hit.  

About two weeks back the Florida Department of Health in Escambia County and Escambia County administration had a tense conversation at which point it was made clear that the local state Health Department did not have the capacity to administer the vaccinations locally.

The rollout thus far has been a massive cluster.

Escambia County at the local level is going to have to step in and pay hospitals and/or other entities to do it---otherwise citizen outrage will continue to roil to a boiling point and there won't be an orderly rollout.

One of the hospitals has now presented us with this contract.  It mirrors contracts this particular Hospital Corporation is using to vaccinate in other markets as well, to include Santa Rosa County.

As I stated in last weeks blog post--why are we paying for this?

But getting past this frustration and the botched state rollout of this vaccination program--why would we ever do what appears to be an exclusive deal with just one of our local hospitals/clinics that can and want to help in the administration of these vaccines?

Answer--we shouldn't do this, we shouldn't do sole-source procurements for these services.

So at tonight's meeting we will bring an updated version of this contract that makes it clear that this $3.5 Million is a total of a currently allocated "pool" of money to be utilized for the express purpose of providing vaccinations to uninsured in the county AND that we are not doing an exclusive deal with ANY one hospital;  this is a NON-EXCLUSIVE agreement and the county can and will add other vendors that choose to participate locally into this program allowing them to vaccinate under the same terms, conditions, stipulations and reimbursement rates from this "pool" of money as in this first contract.

For us as Escambia County to do anything else makes no sense.... I mean--why would we want to limit the number of hospitals, clinics, and/or other licensed and qualified county-approved facilities that we will enlist and pay to provide vaccinations--- if we are truly interested in getting the maximum number of vaccinations out to our citizens as quickly as possible?

We should expand the supply channels not narrow them with exclusive, 1-outlet deals.

This is why we won't do an exclusive deal with one provider, and we will fix this contract tonight before it is approved so that multiple providers, if they so choose, can participate and vaccinate and draw down the $3.5 Million for providing the vaccine to the uninsured citizens.

Anger Mounts over Vaccine Rollout Strategy Cluster....

Anger is quickly building among constituents who are frustrated over the inability to get clear guidance on how to get a COVID-19 vaccination shot in Escambia County.

The state's rollout of this vaccination program here has been a cluster.  And that is being polite.

It's a goat rope.

Constituents in Escambia County are not happy about it either.  My office is getting irate phone calls and emails of complete and utter frustration over the State's vaccination strategy.

"Nobody answers when I call the published number!"

"I call and then a recording says go online to sign up--but I called because I do not have internet access!"

"Nobody can tell me when or where to go to get my vaccination"

These are common complaints that I am getting because our office answers the phone calls and responds to the emails.

Emails look like this:

“The Vaccination roll-out has been a complete cluster. I would hope that the commissioners will address this during tomorrow's meeting. I can't think of any agenda item that could be more important then the health of Escambia County citizens.

I 'finally' got through to the Escambia Dept of Health today (Wednesday). Obviously they are overrun w/calls. According to staff, they are being kept in the dark, like the rest of us us. There seems to be no 'real' plan in the county or the state of Florida. If this is the plan, it needs to changed, because this is not working. We call or sign up at the link and don't get a reply or anything, except an auto-thank you, so we don't know if we are registered or not. Why not have a Website/Online Tool or something, so we can see register and where we are in line, rather then having to constantly search for updates and hope to get an idea of when the next vaccination clinic is? There were months to prepare, but it appears like there was no plan. It would be great to see a brainstorming discussion at the BOCC Meeting where ideas are tossed around. Not 2 weeks from now, but asap.”

and this:

“Dear Sir:

As a SENIOR CITIZEN in Escambia County, I am dismayed at how I am being treated in regard to Covid Vaccinations.  I am asking you to please tell the SENIOR CITIZENS of Escambia County a truthful, realistic, expeditious way in which we can register for and receive our Covid Vaccinations? It is unconscionable that we have gotten nothing but jibber jabber from the appropriate agencies in our county.  These are the very same agencies that are here to “protect and cater to our SENIOR CITIZENS.”  I THINK NOT...My husband and I have been calling constantly, day and night, to the agencies and phone numbers provided. There is no way to get through; the line rings “busy” every time.  And the website recommended is not even up-and-running.  And yet thousands of vaccinations have been given. How did those people get appointments?   Certainly not using the phone numbers and websites dispersed to the public by health officials and Emergency Management. Not providing us with a viable and fair way to register for and receive the Covid Vaccination is disrespectful of our esteemed ELDERS, detrimental to our health, and actually, quite shameful!  I hope that there is a logical resolution to this problem and that ALL CITIZENS of Escambia County can fairly and straight-forwardly receive our inoculations.”

Yeah, so folks are mad.

I'm now told that even despite all of the state's problems---some way, somehow, The State Department of Health in Escambia County still has managed to compile a "list" of about 10,000 residents that have reached out to them wanting vaccination.  But the state has told our staff they cannot handle the logistics of distributing the vaccines.  So now this is falling on us to fund--as I pointed out last week.

We're jumping in with a solution that will maximize the county's various distribution channels to move the vaccines locally and get as many citizens the shot as possible--that will be approved at tonight's meeting.

A Better COVID-19 Dashboard is Now Here! "Recovered COVID-19 Cases" Number Now Tracked

 

After months of work to make it better--we have succeeded.

Our County's CoVID-19 Dashboard is now reflecting a "Recovered" number along with all of the other important metrics that we track and provide daily.

The "Recovered" metric is an estimate based upon the approximate total cases prior to last month minus deaths.  The staff will be using the Crude Recovery Rate and the Crude Case Fatality Rate applied to the number of cases to provide the estimated recovery rate.  The Crude Case-Fatality Risk (CFR) is calculated by dividing the Total Number of Fatalities in Escambia County (Resident and Non-Resident) by the Total Number of Confirmed Cases in Escambia County (Resident and Non-Resident) and multiplying by 100%. The Crude Case-Recovery Risk (CRR) is calculated by subtracting the CFR from 100%. The CFR and CRR are not adjusted for the time delay from diagnosis to death which is highly variable from one to eight weeks. (CFR discussed in: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, October 19, 2020).

I've been pushing for the inclusion of this metric for the last 6 months-----as I know how vitally important it is to provide as much good data to citizens as quickly as possible.  And to only provide the gross, cumulative "cases" number without the counterbalancing context of recovered cases was not giving a complete picture of the situation in Escambia County.  And this is why many other states and countries also provide a "recovered" figure.

It took a while, but now it is here.  I'm grateful to staff for working to keep this data up to date and easy to read.

Wait--We're Going to Pay Nearly $4+ Million in County Funds for WHAT?

 

Will we spend nearly $4 Million and 
"name select" a hospital to inject vaccines
to the general public locally--or should
the state and federal budgets absorb this cost?

As we move through the holidays toward an end to an incredibly tumultuous 2020--the hits keep coming.

And I'm not talking about songs on the Billboard Charts.

I'm talking hits as in gut-punches and body blows.  Uppercuts and elbows to the face. Knees to the groin and spinning backfists to the temple and head.

First, we were hit with COVID 19 which infected 20,000 + residents, killed nearly 360 local citizens, and decimated spring-early summer tourism in our area. Poof, it was gone. (the revenue-NOT the virus)

Throughout the summer, citizens were laid off, businesses struggled, and the economy plugged along uneasily.

Next, we received significant damage from Hurricane Sally in September.  And as a result the county had to front $70 Million for debris hauling.  And although we will receive a majority of this money back in reimbursement from FEMA (75%) and the State (12%)---we will still be on the hook for            $ millions that remain after the reimbursements.  And the reimbursements, well--let's just say they are not always very timely.  As a case in point-I'm told by staff we received some reimbursements owed from IVAN (September, 2004) as recently as just two years ago in 2018.  Just saying.....

And yet early on in 2020--things were looking so great--we even received $8 Million in general fund eligible "found" money as a residual from the BP Oil Spill settlement.  It came as a pleasant, welcome surprise to all of us--out of the clear blue sky.  It was awesome and we all had plans and designs on how we'd spend this windfall in our respective districts.  It was great for about a month.  Don't worry though---that $8 million is gone now, that and then some.  Thanks 2020.  Vaporized into thin air.

And then--FDOT's bridge project went haywire in the wake of Sally-- as their contractor improperly secured dozens of barges--according to multiple law firms and the PNJ-- that subsequently took out the 3-mile bridge--effectively killing many small businesses in Gulf Breeze and vaporizing our early fall business at the area's beaches.  Don't worry though:--we are told FDOT will break with tradition and "do whatever is necessary" to actually complete something on time; they keep saying March 2021 the span damaged by their contractors' barges will be "fixed."  We will see about that---trust me I want to believe that.  Like Fox Mulder's famous office wall-hanging poster--"I want to believe."  I think it will be more like June-July------if things go perfectly from this point forward.  I hope I'm wrong and that FDOT will actually be able to hit a deadline.   I hope I'm wrong and FDOT is right.  We will all see in March, I guess.

We're told FDOT will have the 3-Mile
bridge repaired in March......

But now, after all of the above  (and much more I'm not even bothering to mention) comes word of another unexpected, contentious, out-of- thin air multi-million dollar expenditure we are going to be asked to approve in our first meeting of 2021.  That's right folks--nearly $4 Million dollars are going to be requested of the BCC to pay our local hospitals to administer the COVID-19 vaccine to our area's general population.

But Wait--why are we being asked to pay for this--isn't the state getting money from the FEDS for this?  What about the Army?  What about the "Operation Warp Speed" distribution plan? What about the health department? Isn't the National Guard going to be deployed to vaccinate the public?  Why wouldn't the hospitals be paid/reimbursed directly for this by the FEDS?  Aren't these hospitals already being reimbursed directly for COVID-19 related increased costs?  Too many questions.  

Our $57 Million in CARES act money is programmed and spent already--so where is the additional nearly $4 Million more supposed to come from--------and why are we doing this--paying for this locally?

I'm told that counties around the state, including one nearby to our east, are proactively paying their local hospital corporations (nonprofits and for profits) millions of dollars as their vaccination agents. Our neighboring county has put aside $2.4 Million for this express purpose I have been told.  So this is putting pressure on us to do likewise--is the justification I have heard.

My late mom, God rest her soul, had an apropos saying she used to throw at my brother and I when we were about to make bad choices based upon peer pressure.  "If Joey decides to jump off the cliff--are you going to jump off a cliff, too?"

Of course we want everyone to be vaccinated--we care about the health and safety of our citizens.  But again I ask--why do we have to shoulder this burden locally with local funds--this should be a FED and State cost, right?  I mean, the Federal Treasury is printing money at breakneck speed, the presses are smoking they are moving so fast as we quickly surpass $30 Trillion in debt.  So I have a hard time believing that some of that cheddar is not "supposed" to go to paying for citizen vaccinations.

"Yo, Adrian, we can't take any more
budgetary face-punches!"

This whole topic will be generating some discussion at the meeting.  Some pointed questions are coming that will require some cogent answers.  Because as of right now--we can't spend any more than we've spent already.  2020 has been one catastrophe on top of another, one punch to the head after another; we can't take any more blows to the head or else we'll get "knocked out!"

What Does the COVID-19 Recovered Number Look Like Locally?

Recovery Happens for the VAST majority of individuals that are diagnosed with COVID-19 locally---but what is the number??

One of the metrics I believe we desperately need to add to our daily COVID-19 Dashboard is the number of positive patients that have subsequently "recovered" from COVID-19.  Now, there are a lot of different ways to calculate this---and obviously it is an educated guess or estimate--but it can be done.

The state of Michigan Does it.

Wisconsin Does it.

The country India does it

So why can't we, in Escambia County, do it?

Answer:  We can and we will.  Because I believe we have a duty to provide as much data as we can on this topic----and a good "recovered" number is a vitally important data point.

Otherwise folks are just looking at the TOTAL CASES NUMBER OF 17,177!  (representing nearly 20% of Escambia's population, or 1 in 5 people)  But wait:  That number includes ALL cases since the pandemic started in March.  Many, in fact the VAST MAJORITY of those cases have resolved and recovered (minus the 310 that unfortunately have died and those that are currently infected and fighting the disease).  But if the recovered number, right now, stands at about 13,000 of those 17,177 cases---that is good information to know.  Because that means there are really only 4,177 ACTIVE, CURRENT cases--which is a much smaller percentage (8% roughly or less than 1 in 10 ).  

Because of this and for many other good reasons, we MUST get this data point added to our dashboard.

So I discussed it at the last BCC meeting.  Staff has been looking at the data and is working on a formula.  Meanwhile--here is some initial information on this topic provided by staff:

"Testing data in Escambia County shows 17,177 citizens have tested positive, 1081 (6.3%) have been hospitalized, and 310 (1.8%) have died.   Importantly, 93.7% of citizens who tested positive in Escambia County did not require hospitalization, and 98.2% of citizens who tested positive recovered and did not die.  This can be compared to the total State of Florida residents who have tested positive (1,012,456) where 5.5% have been hospitalized and 1.86% have died."

98.2% locally have recovered thus far, and have not died.

 

Lockdown the State?

We cannot afford to "Lockdown" the entire state, decimating small
businesses while simultaneously cratering our economy in the process, in response
to a recent surge in Coronavirus cases.  Lockdowns DO NOT work... 

I was called yesterday by Channel 3 to discuss COVID-19 "Lockdowns" and my thoughts on this topic.

It was a story because Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has said he would not lock down the state again over COVID-19.  This announcement produced some passionate debate on both sides of the issue.  So WEAR wanted to talk to local policy makers to get our perspective (s).

I spoke with Danielle Apolinar of Channel 3 for about 10 minutes yesterday afternoon and we talked about multiple aspects of the issue, to include the fact that more than 99% of the vast majority of those infected with COVID-19 recover worldwide, and also the fact that many scientists including special envoy of WHO Peter Nabarro have come out and stated that "lockdowns should not be the primary means to control COVID-19 outbreaks"  Meanwhile--many states and large cities have decimated their own economies and businesses utilizing these draconian lockdowns----and despite this--- the virus appears to be making a surge in these very same locations.  

So why lock down again if it does not work and did not work?  We can't move forward collectively "hiding out in the basement..."

So yes I did say I agree with Governor DeSantis on this.  

He's right.  Spot on actually.

And he's managed this crisis very well when all things are considered---and especially as compared to places like San Francisco and New York--where long-established, well-loved service related companies have been put out of business permanently in percentages estimated to be as high as 63%.  Was that smart to do, was it worth it?  No.

And the fact that he (DeSantis) has the fortitude to say he will not bow to the pressure of other states and shut down Florida's economy shows leadership that is very strong and very respectable.

This said, I did stress to Danielle during our conversation that individuals that are immunocompromised or in a high-risk category for susceptibility to COVID-19 should take their own safety into their own hands and self-isolate as necessary.  Two words--Personal Responsibility.  I also stated that we all should follow the guidance from CDC on hand washing and social distancing.  Because we all do have a part to play.  Furthermore, I mentioned to her that locally our hospitalization numbers have trended downward in a large way since July/August (high of 246 local citizens hospitalized in Escambia County Hospitals with COVID-19) to now-- (93 persons hospitalized in Escambia County Hospitals with COVID-19).

We also discussed Norway, Finland, and Sweden's approach to the pandemic which has largely spared their economies by specifically and deliberately NOT completely shutting down their cities, towns, and districts.  While these nations have suffered many infections and many deaths--just like the rest of Europe--they did not have to massacre their small businesses and their countries' economies in the process--which should be noted and NOT attacked.

Look--this virus is serious, it is a "real" disease with which we MUST contend and that we are all working to defeat in our own spheres of influence.

But folks that want to go out and work should NOT be prevented from doing so.  Shutting down the world and destroying small businesses and statewide economies at this point, right as we're on the verge of tremendous vaccine and therapeutic breakthroughs, is ridiculous.  

To do so is authoritarian power-madness---- and is recklessly irresponsible, in my opinion.

So no, we in Florida simply cannot afford to lockdown again.  I said it and I meant it because it is a fact.

Metrics We Should Be Capturing.....

We should have been capturing the "recovered" number from the total positive COVID-19 cases all along--so we would all know better how many active cases are walking around Escambia County.  But we're not doing this locally even though I've asked repeatedly why not, as other places are.  We should also, now more than ever, be capturing the percentage of  "asymptomatic" citizens that get tested and pop positive.  But I'm being told this isn't a data point being captured.  But why not though?  These are two metrics we should be capturing....

We had a brief presentation on COVID-19 from our health department last Thursday at our BCC meeting.  We were given an update on local cases and numbers, and also some statewide data.

The usual questions were asked.  Yes, yes--wear masks and wash hands.  

The board pushed for Saturday testing--and yes we got that done.

I had two simple questions for Marie Mott, the new director of the health department locally.

#1--when we test asymptomatic individuals locally--is someone capturing the % of these that are actually positive?  She said she'd check and find out.

#2--where can citizens turn if they develop symptoms on the weekend and want to get a rapid test?

Yesterday I received a response via email.  from the email:

"The following is in response to the questions that you had asked.

Regarding numbers or percentages of asymptomatic persons being tested, it appears that there is not a way to determine what percentage of individuals seeking testing are asymptomatic. If I learn otherwise, I will share accordingly.

Regarding phone resources for COVID questions, there does continue to be a 24/7 call center for COVID-19 (866-779-6121) as well as an email address (covid-19@flhealth.gov) – both of which can be found ‘above the fold’ at FloridaHealthCOVID-19.gov."

To which I responded:

"Thanks for the response.  I’m wondering why we cannot collect this data (% of citizens presenting for testing asymptomatically who subsequently test positive for COVID) locally at our test site(s) though? 

 Does nobody else believe that to know the percentage of asymptomatic individuals that pop positive is NOT a good data point to have? 

 Question:  Can we capture this figure locally—can you assist in making this happen? 

 Because I believe to do so gives us a number which can in turn, as I said in the meeting, allow us to extrapolate (albeit perhaps not 100% accurately but a good heuristic) what percentage of the County’s population as a whole may be walking around carrying this virus asymptomatically?  This would be a very important aspect I’d like to know as a policy maker and as a guy that could be a swing vote to mandate masks, for instance.

 Please let me know who it is that can make this happen.  This is important to me.  More importantly—this is important to the citizens I serve."

53rd Coffee with the Commissioner Event will Occur in Two Weeks

 

We are going to continue our online, virtual "Coffee with the Commissioner" events until it is safe to once again resume these in person out in locations throughout Escambia County's District 1.  Our next Coffee event, our 53rd edition, will occur two weeks from this Wednesday--on September 2nd.

This week, we will not have our event due to the election (in which I am a participant)  and I will also be out of state visiting my son Nick who will be starting his second year of law school at Marquette on the 24th.

So our coffee on the 2nd will be all about COVID-19 and how we are reporting the statistics to you, the citizens of the county.  I will have Janice Gilley, County Administrator and Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency manager on the webinar with me on the 2nd.  And I invite you to submit any questions you may have on any aspect of the county's response to the COVID-19 Pandemic to me in advance as either a comment to this blog, an email to me ( District1@myescambia.com ) , or on my Commissioner's Facebook page   https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

Importantly--I will and have been pursuing an important new metric for our dashboard:  Recovered Rate.

I believe this is a critically important data point to present along with all of the other information because as we continuously add the new case numbers to the dashboard--folks are seeing this huge number out of context in my opinion-----as many may falsely believe that number represents the current number of citizens stricken by this virus--even though this number includes cases from as far back as March.  And other states and municipalities have begun taking a 6-week heuristic and applying it to new cases.  Although this is not a perfect, foolproof method for illustrating a "recovered rate"--it is better than what we are doing currently in my opinion.

Simply stated, applying a six week standard to all cases (because after 6 weeks post diagnosis--the vast majority of patients recover with a very small percentage remaining hospitalized past 6-weeks and an even smaller number succumbing to the disease and dying.)  So, to illustrate the recovered numbers better--this sort of a protocol should be added to our dashboard so folks see a more realistic number of local citizens who are infected at a moment in time-----not the TOTAL number diagnosed since the beginning of the pandemic.

This will be a big part of the discussion on September 2nd--I look forward to it.  

 The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, September 2nd-- simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online!

52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Live Stream This Wednesday--Discussing COVID-19 Impacts on Local Small Businesses with DC Reeves

 

We will be holding our 52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Event online this coming Wednesday, August 12.  We will be live at my Commissioner's Facebook page from 6:30-7:30 AM and we will be discussing the ongoing impact the COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our community.

We will have special guest DC Reeves, owner of Perfect Plain Brewery in Downtown Pensacola and Chief of Staff for the Studer Family of Companies, and director of The Spring--an incubator and mentorship program for small businesses.  DC will be discussing the impacts the economic shutdown for the Pandemic has had on his business and other downtown small businesses.

We will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the webinar to give updates on the county's ongoing efforts at mitigating this pandemic's impacts on our community. 

The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

 To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online this Wednesday!

51st Coffee With The Commissioner This Wednesday: COVID-19 and Impacts on Law Enforcement

What are the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on our local Law Enforcement?  Find out Wednesday as we discuss the Pandemic with Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan

We will be having our 51st Coffee with the Commissioner event this Wednesday morning, August 5th, from 6:30 to 7:30 AM live on Facebook.

As we have been doing, we will once again be focusing on the impacts the devastating COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our local community.

We have previously discussed the economic impacts, the impacts on our faith-based community, our schools, our tourism industry, small businesses, and of course--healthcare.

But what about Law Enforcement?

This week, we will welcome special guest Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan to the program, and we will be discussing the challenges this Pandemic has placed upon the men and women of Law Enforcement.

I'll be asking questions and if you have questions for the Sheriff on this topic--please email them to me or post them as comments to this blog post.

some initial areas of discussion will include the following:

1.  What is the greatest single impact this Pandemic is having on the Escambia County Sheriff's Office?

2.  Is the wearing of PPE, and masks in particular, an difficult issue for the deputies, from a physical standpoint?

3.  Has staffing been an issue as members of the ECSO test positive--and how have you overcome this issue?

4.  Is there an measurable increase in petty thefts, burglaries, and larceny since the pandemic?

5.  With many our of work, and many stuck working from home--has there been an uptick in domestic calls?

6.  Has the pandemic necessitated major changes to any particular aspects of the  work your deputies do for the citizens of Escambia County?

7.  In the unlikely event the Governor shuts our economy down again--many believe this will increase crime as folks will become desperate for necessities.  With the unemployment numbers rising and the economy in deep recession already--is this assumption on crime increasing correct in your opinion?  and if so--how can we get ahead of this?

I look forward to an interesting discussion on these topics Wednesday.  In addition to the Sheriff, we will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the call to give an update on the impacts of the Pandemic on Escambia County.

I will ask the salient questions that everyone is asking me.

It will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.

Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

"See You" online this Wednesday!

What are Other Florida Counties Doing on Masks?

See for yourself in this chart, below, that was sent to all commissioners by staff......

50th Coffee with the Commissioner this Week: 2 Medical Doctors including a Pulmonologist Discussing COVID-19

We will have two (2) medical doctors on our live coffee on Wednesday
discussing the COVID-19 Pandemic

Our 50th Coffee with a Commissioner will be a webinar to watch this Wednesday morning!

I will have two medical doctors on the call, including a local pulmonologist  who has been in practice for 30 years locally and who has worked at all three local Escambia County hospitals.

I had a great conversation this Saturday morning with him, and he has agreed to join us on the call Wednesday morning to give an update on current conditions in our hospitals and the further actions he believes we need to take to reduce transmission levels locally.

We will also have Baptist Hospital in Pensacola CEO Mark Faulkner aboard to discuss the conditions at Baptist Hospital and how his organization is handling the pandemic locally.  County Administrator Janice Gilley will also be on the call, as will be County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore.

I will ask the questions of the doctors and specialists the folks have been asking me--so it will be a good program to watch this Wednesday:

1. What does recovery look like for our local patients?
2. How long does the virus stay in the systems of recovered patients?
3.  Are our hospitals in danger of being over-run by COVID-19 patients?
4.  What current treatments are working best?  Convalescent plasma?  Remdesivir?  Steroids?
5.  Are masks more important than hygiene, hand washing, and social distancing?
6.  Are mask mandates absolutely necessary in your professional opinion(s)?
7.  Do we have the staff locally to handle the loads of patients?
8.  Is it safe to open schools for in-person instruction in August?
9.  How long is a recovered patient contagious--or are they contagious?
10.  How long will this pandemic last in your opinion--and can we beat it?

I will ask the salient questions that everyone is asking me.

It will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.

Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

"See You" online this Wednesday!

Medical Professionals are Begging us to Mandate Masks Part II

From a Local Medical Clinic Employee:

"Mr. Bergosh:   Sadly, I have watched you over the last month on TV rudely speaking to a physician in a meeting regarding support to follow CDC guidelines which support wearing a mask by all people. Last night, you sarcastically said that wearing masks in down town Pensacola was not being enforced or working.   I applaud the majors[SIC] actions to enforce and guide Escambia citizens in the right direction but the city can not do it alone it needs to be countywide and statewide.  When you encourage people "to  shop at Winn Dixie where they don't require masks" because they have a choice you are allowing more asymptomatic people to infect others.  We are very disappointed as health care providers in the leadership that you are providing regarding the support to not wear a mask.  Unfortunately, wearing a mask is not an option or a right when it can bring harm to another individual!  Perhaps you should take a tour at all the area hospitals and see how many patients are currently in the hospital.  I encourage you to  talk and listen to the staff who are very tired, stressed, and becoming ill themselves. As a social worker I can not even find transportation for my dialysis patients because nobody wants to transport a COVID patient to dialysis because of fear of catching the virus and inability to clean their vehicles appropriately.   I'm asking you to be part of the solution not the problem.  It's bad enough that we have a governor who has let Florida's COVID spread like wildfire.  As I watch our numbers in Escambia county climb every day I feel compelled to reach out to you to put politics aside and do the right thing to protect our county.  Postcards are nice but leadership is better."   

Medical Professionals are Begging Us to Mandate Masks, Part I

From a doctor this week:

"Dear Commissioner Bergosh,

   I am a practicing Pulmonologist and Critical Care physician and resident of Escambia County for 27 years. I have never written to the BCC and hope never again to feel compelled to do so. 

My colleagues and I need your help.

   In the last month, I have taken care of hundreds of seriously ill Covid-19 patients in three local hospitals. Bed space is extremely limited and we are stretched to capacity. This situation is not sustainable. These patients are your neighbors, community members, potential relatives and constituents who are depending on you to exercise the power you were elected to deploy, in order to keep them safe.

   Masks and facial coverings work. A recent study, published just 3 days ago, compared the growth rate of Covid-19 before and after mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia. It found that mask wearing led to a slow-down in transmission in the first 5 days of the mandate. After 3 short weeks, the Covid-19 growth rate slowed by 2%. Another study of 198 countries showed significantly lower death rates as a result of masking.

   Issuing a mask mandate, either by Commission vote or emergency order by the County Administrator, is a simple, harmless, low-tech and remedial step that is wholly within your power. To save lives. I hear the circular argument that such a mandate would be difficult to enforce. Commissioner, you were hired to make difficult decisions, in the interest of public safety. Just as I was hired to make difficult decisions regarding treatment of non-mask wearing patients who end up in our ICUs needing intubation because their lungs have deteriorated from the inflammatory process of this lethal virus.

   Seat belt laws, bicycle helmet laws, texting while driving laws, smoking bans in public places were all difficult implementations. Yet they have reduced hospitalizations and saved human lives. 

Is difficulty of enforcement a legitimate reason not to try? Your "Mask Up" campaign is a good step in the right direction but does not go far enough. It has not resulted, as we hoped, in the reduction of hospitalizations we desperately need. Our county is currently in the "red zone" classification of disease and our area recently reached a 155% increase in Covid-19 cases. Unfortunately there is no end in sight.

   How did a 6" x 4" piece of fabric that filters bacteria and viral pathogen become a debatable topic? If you have ever been a patient, did the sight of a mask on your physician or nurse elicit any response other than reassurance? We have been wearing earloop masks in health care for half a century. Because they work!

   Promotion of public health is arguably the greatest investment a government official can make. You have an opportunity here to help physicians in your community do their job. In the interest of public health, in the spirit of mutual human respect, please work WITH us, not AGAINST us. Physicians in Escambia County need your help. Now.

Thank you for your service."

Double Standards Part II: Safe Activities for Youth During the Coronavirus Pandemic

How can it be stated that it is "unsafe" for college students to congregate at the beach without wearing masks and not socially distancing--- but that it is "safe" for high school students to be on packed buses with one another unmasked and without social distancing?

There are a whole lot of double standards happening these days.

Depending upon one's political ideologies and/or worldview--some of these double standards are accepted, embraced, and all but condoned.  Even when they do not make sense.

Yes, intelligent people will look you straight in the face and tell you one thing is safe, yet excoriate the same behavior in another context/setting.  Then when you ask for elaboration and point out the obvious double standard--they'll dismiss your query as inane, get mad you had the temerity to ask about it---- or worse yet--not even answer a direct question on the topic.  Direct, on-point questions get sidestepped in favor of canned talking points supportive of a desired outcome or political party position or what a particular politician prognosticated.

Case in point and a major disconnect in the COVID-19 response: The behaviors of our youth and their susceptibility and vulnerability to COVID-19..

On the one hand--18 and 19 year old spring breakers gathered in numbers on the beaches in close proximity to one another--wrestling on the beach, frolicking in the waves, doing what college students do on spring break---well that is DANGEROUS, IRRESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR!  It will lead to the SPREAD of the virus----we have to SHUT THAT DOWN! is what we all were told in March and April.  It was a potential DISASTER!!  They screamed at us.  So we shut that down, after all--these were the experts telling us this, so.....we listened.

Fast forward a few months and now everyone is bound and determined to get "back to normal" in the safest way possible, and as quickly as possible--- and the "experts" now say---School will be safe for students!!  "Children are safe, we can send them back to school, and no--we won't mandate masks and no--we cannot socially distance the students on the buses because nobody has the budgets to afford to do this----But don't worry--16, 17, 18, and 19 year old high school students packed on the buses, not wearing masks and not socially distancing, goofing around, engaging in horseplay, and doing what high schoolers do on the bus---well don't worry about this though.  This is SAFE--NO WORRIES, NOTHING TO SEE HERE, move along!"

Wait.....what?  A rational person would clearly see this disconnect and say "Wait a minute--either both behaviors (spring breakers and bus riders--neither group wearing masks or socially distancing) are dangerous---or NEITHER behavior is.  It is one or the other--but no way it's both.

Yes, yes--these so-called experts (most of whom would never even put their own children in a public school, let alone on a public school bus) will point to a pediatric study that was conducted early-on in the pandemic and say--we don't think it affects children the same way it affects adults.  We think it will be safe.  Look at this study!!  How dare you question us!!(They won't mention the fact that this particular study and its resultant conclusions are based upon certain conditions--- including social distancing happening in schools and the schools re-starting in communities where there is not widespread community transmission of the disease occurring presently. They also won't tell you about the South Korean study that indicates students 10-19 transmit the disease like adults do....)  But wait--can Escambia county really check either of those boxes right now?  Too many questions.....Nevertheless--do not question the experts, do not question them!

I am questioning you.  I don't believe you.  And I'm not subscribing to any of your political posturing, party agendas, or deadlines.  I listen to teachers who are concerned.  I have heard from administrators