COVID-19 in Escambia County Daily Snapshot: Still a Large Number of Test Results Outstanding

As we see from our latest cumulative report sent to commissioners last night, above, we are starting to get better numbers in terms of positive and negative COVID-19  results reported.  According to the chart above-- provided to us last night--there have been a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests conducted since the beginning of March in Escambia County.  According to this chart, we have received results back for 2,631 of these tests resulting in 136 positive cases and 2,495 negative results.  This still leaves a delta of  1,481 tests for which results have not yet been reported. 

Taking just the data we have and what we know from this local report though, it appears to be encouraging news when looking at it from a percentage of tests producing positive results standpoint;  Knowing we have 2,631 total test results reported back and knowing this has produced, thus far, just 136 positive cases, this results in just a little over a 5% infection rate per test result received.  Right now, the state's dashboard (below) is reporting a 10.8% of test results received infection rate  based upon the test results they have received back thus far.  see dashboard below....

So our infection rate percentage per test result received back in Escambia appears to be less than half of the state's infection percentage per test.  Can this be right?

But I still wonder why there is such a delta between what we know we have collected in tests here and what the state's dashboard reports just this morning (e.g. we know we have results locally for 2,631 tests, yet the state still erroneously lists that total number as 2,075--leaving a delta of 556 results known but not yet reported to the state.)

Equally troubling:  We know we have conducted a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests yet the state is only reporting results for 2,075 of these.  Why are the results for the other 2,037 tests not yet reported, why this continuing delta of thousands of test results?

Meanwhile, taking the local and more accurate numbers:  If we know our infection rate is about 5% (Half of the state's percentage) and we know we are still awaiting 1,481 results--is it unreasonable to extrapolate that 5% of this still unreported test number will result in a corresponding 74 additional positive cases?  If this is a rational and logical assumption based upon data we have at hand (and it is), then we can logicallly speculate that we have at least 74 additional positive cases locally that are not yet identified, added to the 141 total positives known as of today to get a total number of positives locally, potentially, of 215 cases.

How Many Positive COVID-19 Cases Does Escambia County Really Have?

As of right now, at this very moment,  the state of Florida is reporting that Escambia County has 118 positive cases of COVID-19 in our county.

But is that number even real?

The very latest total specimen collection report we as commissioners have received is posted below.  It was sent out at 8:38 PM last night.  It has data through Friday April 3rd reflected.

Now, looking at this data presented above, we see that in Escambia County a total of 3,898 specimens have been collected (COVID-19 Tests administered).  And this data does not include the latest positive and negative results data from Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this past week.

Nevertheless, we have administered 3,898 total tests in Escambia County as of Friday (and probably more yesterday).

But looking again at the latest information reported on Florida's "Dashboard" just this morning, below, we see a skewed number again, the "total tests" number is only 1,510....

So why does there continue to be a delta between the number of tests we know we have administered locally  and the "total tests" metric on the state's dashboard?  Right now that delta (difference between the number of tests we know we have administered locally compared with what the state is listing as "total tests" in Escambia County) is at least 2,388.   Why has this lag in reporting continued?  More importantly, where are the results for these 2,388 tests we know we have conducted, and why have these results not been reported to the state's dashboard?

We know the test results are coming back faster now; the Mayor of Pensacola got his results back in a little over a day, and others who have been tested last week are getting results reported back within 48 hours.  I am personally aware of this happening.  And the testers who administer the drive through swabs are telling the patients to expect results within 24-48 hours.  With this said--- why does this delta in the figures continue, and why is it growing as compared to the last several times I have measured it here and here?

This is one of the lingering questions I will be asking the expert medical panelists this coming Wednesday morning when I host them on my virtual 34th Coffee with the Commissioner online event.

We were told at Thursday's BCC meeting that the state's "total tests" figure on their dashboard actually, simply means "test results received."  So why not simply call it that?!?

The current nomenclature the state is using creates confusion and uncertainty and is needlessly vague.

But setting that aside, here is what really concerns me:

Seeing the trends statewide---the percentage of positive test results is running at nearly 11%.  The percentage for Escambia County--if we look at the total number of "test results received" and the concomitant percentage of positive test results reported locally as a percentage of the total-- is currently running 7.8%--less than the state average percentage.

So here is the deal.  Is it irrational to believe, knowing we have 2,388 test results not yet reported, that we actually have 7.8% of those tests probably coming back positive?  I don't believe it is irrational.  I believe it is logical.

So how many positive COVID-19 cases does Escambia County really have at the moment--taking the total reported and adding in 7.8% of the total tests conducted but not yet received?

A logical "deduction" , based upon the data and statistics as we currently know know them to be, would be our total  real number could be actual 304 Positive COVID-19 Cases in Escambia County Presently!

Yes, it could be lower.  It could be.

But logic and reason dictates that based upon the evidence the number locally is at least 304 or more.

Will This Memo Break the Test-Result Reporting Logjam? How Will it Be Enforced?

This Document, above,  was sent to commissioners yesterday afternoon.  It had been forwarded to labs earlier in the week.  Is this law being enforced right now?  Why are we not getting test report results back when state law dictates this happen?  Why this gentle reminder?  Who is enforcing this law, and are there any penalties for the non-compliers?  What are the penalties and will they be applied?

As the country and our county struggle with big decisions in the midst of the worldwide Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic---more and more folks are putting their collective fingers right on the jugular vein of the biggest problem:  Lack of good, timely test results data/information.

In Florida the issue is especially acute.

In Escambia County, for instance, we know that we have collected more than 2,400 COVID-19 test specimens over the last month.  Yet the state Department of Health has only reported results on the official dashboard for 581 tests. 

So where are the results for the nearly 1,800 additional tests?

Late yesterday afternoon, Dr. Lanza from the Florida Department of Health in Escambia County sent an interesting update, and in the update a document was included urging.---no, DEMANDING--- that ALL labs, public and private, must share COVID -19 results with the Department of Health.  This sharing must be done immediately with no delay, and the memo cites the Florida Statutes that mandate this.

There have been delays, and when I have asked very direct questions like "If a screened patient in Escambia County is notified of a positive COVID -19 test by his physician or by a laboratory---is the notifying Hospital or laboratory also simultaneously notifying the Florida Department of Health?  How do we know this?  If this is not happening, what can be done to compel this to happen?

To which I have received shoulder shrug answers back.  This is not good enough, and obviously we are not the only ones experiencing this problem.

Others in Florida besides county commissioners in Escambia County like me have seen this delayed response/reporting phenomenon as a CRITICAL problem.

Folks are blaming the labs, but is this really where the problem lies?

The labs, and the HOSPITALs themselves need to be much more forthcoming with what exactly is causing the hold up on results reporting to the state.

Without timely, accurate results---we as policy makers CANNOT make good, solid, rational (not emotional) decisions.

Until I get good answers, I am going to continue to ask about this until I see results.  This Wednesday when I host my 33rd Coffee with the Commissioner event--I will ask this specifically of my guests--County Administrator Janice Gilley, Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore, and Baptist Healthcare President Mark Faulkner.

You can tune in this Wednesday, April 1st, at 6:30 AM and send in your questions in real time at my Commissioner's Facebook site:  https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/