............Just How Good Will the OLF-8 Project End Up Being, Financially, for the Taxpayers of Escambia County?

 

According to preliminary estimates presented to me yesterday by DPZ Design--it appears as if the Escambia County Taxpayers may achieve a net return on investment on OLF-8 of between $12Million and as much as $47 Million once this plan is finalized and this land is developed/sold.

Yesterday afternoon I had an individual briefing with the DPZ design team on their four potential plans for OLF-8.

All four plans allow space/acreage such that the creation of a minimum of 1,000 good jobs is achievable.

All four plans include space for community amenities, green space, and trails around the property.

Three of the four plans recommend a significant amount of differing types of residential construction on the property (Single-Family, Loft over Commercial, Townhome, Apartment)

All four allow for commercial/retail along the frontage of 9-Mile road.

Once presented with the materials and given the briefing (which will also be held publicly at an upcoming committee of the whole), I had three basic questions/requests of the team:

1.  Can they get a metric and bring it to the upcoming meeting detailing the short and long term financial impact/benefit to the County if the property generates 1,000 jobs, or 2,000 jobs, or 3,000 jobs etc.?  (This sort of a metric was missing)

2.  Can they get a metric or "star rating" for each plan based upon the likelihood (or not) of each plan securing a Triumph Gulf Coast Grant?

3.  Will the team be able to take input from the commissioners and bring back a hybrid plan based upon what the BCC considers an optimal "mix" of these plans to create a plan that creates jobs and value for the community and the citizens to a degree that it will garner at least 3 votes to move forward?  

The answer to all three questions was "YES"--and I must say there are attributes to each of the plans that I feel are extremely appealing.  I stressed to the DPZ team on the call my continuing belief that whatever the final "plan" is that comes out of the other end of the sausage hopper of design---I believe it will represent a compromise and no entity will get 100% of what they want--but everyone will get some of what they want.

But the financial winner in this whole evolution, it is becoming more and more evident, will be the taxpayers of Escambia County.  

Although we spent nearly $18 Million acquiring this property, we have already recouped $4 Million when we sold 100 acres of it to NFCU.  This leaves us with an outstanding expenditure of $14 Million left to recoup.  Since the time of our acquisition of this property----the value of land in Beulah has gone straight up like a rocket.  

Which begs the question:  Just how good will the OLF-8 project end up being, financially, for the Taxpayers of Escambia County?

Well--- according to the expert analysis of the DPZ team in their presentation yesterday---the property, once divested, will generate proceeds of between  $26.48 Million and $61.77 Million.

Subtracting the remaining $14Million invested--this represents a potential net return to the County's LOST fund of between $12.48Million to $47.77 Million---depending upon how the property is developed and disposed of.

But no matter which way it is sliced and diced---and regardless of how sloppy the deal was as we assembled it like a go-cart already pushed down a hill---it looks as though the taxpayers are going to score a major financial coup with this project!