Enhancements for Beulah Park are now Under Construction!

Three cool new features are coming soon to Beulah's regional park.  Funded in March with $200,000.00 from District 1 Discretionary local option sales tax (LOST) funds-construction has now begun at the park.

Construction was supposed to begin in June/July--but there were some delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The three new features will consist of:

1. An outdoor fitness feature which will allow adults to work out outdoors--instead of in an indoor environment where air circulation would not be as good.

2.  A rock climbing wall for children and teens--this will be a really nifty addition to the park that I know the children will love!

3.  A Children's Water Play area with misters, water towers and other play features 

that allow kids to cool off by getting wet on hot summer days.

I look forward to getting these upgrades completed as soon as possible!

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-15-2020?

 Early voting has now ended in Escambia County for the August 18th Primary Election.  As of COB yesterday--Countywide 19.60% of registered voters had cast their collective ballots already either by early voting or by absentee ballot as allowed by law.  The countywide number of early votes is static now--as that voting has concluded.  Absentee ballots, however, will continue to arrive and be counted Monday and Tuesday--so it appears that it will be a 20% turnout at least by the time physical, at-precinct ballots begin to be cast Tuesday.

So how many votes will that leave for election day on Tuesday?  What percentage of votes are still out and to be expected on election day?

As I predicted last week, I believe the majority of votes for this primary have already been cast, and that the majority of the votes will have been made via absentee.  I believe we will have a bump on election day, which will push the total a bit higher and that will ultimately be a larger number total than the early voter total, but less than the absentee vote total.  I arrive at this conclusion by looking at the turnout in non-presidential primary elections in Escambia County over the last 15 years--where turnout for such primaries was as follows:

2018-30.8% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2016-27% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2014-16.78% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2012-26.34% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2010-25.15% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2008-25.31% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2006-29.88% of eligible voters voted in the primary

So throwing out the outliers in 2014 and 2018 while averaging the other years gives an average participation percentage (of total eligible voters) of  26.73.  I happen to believe that the actual percentage of voters that will participate in this election will be a bit higher, but not much.  I believe it will be between 27.5%-29%.  And with 20% effectively in the bag already via early and absentee votes cast through yesterday--this means a whopping 69% to 73% of voters that will vote in this year's primary----again using historical data to estimate this--have already cast their ballots.

This means only 27%-31% of the total votes are yet to be cast and counted.  Meaning the election, for the most part, has already happened.

So what does this mean for my primary, the one I am competing in right now and that ends on Tuesday?

With 8,635 votes cast thus far equating to 18.24% eligible District 1 voters, and assuming the middle of the estimated participation range I described above, or 28.5% of eligible voters total to turn out----I'm predicting that 13, 489 voters total will participate in my primary election in District 1.  With 8,635 having already cast their ballots--this leaves just 4,854 left to be cast on Tuesday--just over one-third of the total that will be cast.  Or put another way---2/3 of this primary is already "in the can."

But hey, it's 2020 and this year with COVID-19 and a crashing economy plus hyper-toxic politics---this  is anything but your average year.  

Therefore anything could happen.

Watch.

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1

Recent Ruling is an Interesting Read......

Commissioners were just provided with this public record document this past week, in August, that a Federal Judge issued in June.  ?

It revolves around a case that was filed against the county by a former employee.

I was contacted by this employee when he was going through the issues raised in what would eventually become a lawsuit against the county.  I tried as best I could to intervene and ensure our policies were followed with respect to due process rights for this employee.  This is our policy.

Unfortunately--folks did not listen.

And I wish it had not gone this direction, I wish the folks in HR and Emergency Management could have followed policy to the letter and if they had done so-----I do not believe this lawsuit would have happened.

But folks did what they did, we had quite a bit of turnover, folks just "shrugged" their collective shoulders, and and employee's entire career hung in the balance.  Now we are getting a glimpse into which way the legal proceedings are going based upon what the judge said in his written order denying multiple motions to dismiss on several important allegations that have been made against the county and against one particular employee in both this employee's official and personal capacities.

As I said, I was asked to look into this by an exasperated employee and I did.  I discussed it here with multiple posts.  I wish folks would just follow the policies.  Following policy prevents issues like this from erupting like Mt. Vesuvius. Following policy ensures employees--ALL EMPLOYEES--are treated fairly.  Following policies is prudent financially, as it saves taxpayer dollars that otherwise get spent defending lawsuits.  Following policy is what is EXPECTED of us! 

But worse than not simply following policy-------when a policy is not followed and then this conduct is condoned and endorsed after the fact---it only gets worse.

So we will see which way this goes eventually as it concludes in the courts.  I will continue to watch with great interest.  More importantly---when this is settled in the court and a ruling is made--the issue will not end simply with a settlement payout so far as I am concerned.  It may also necessitate additional action by the board based upon our policy NOT being followed.  We will have to see what happens then.

My advice:  Always follow the rules, always.  And NEVER, EVER Double Down on someone's else's bad decisions by embracing such decisions because if you do, you own the consequences.  ALL of them.

Follow our policies with fidelity always.  ALWAYS!

53rd Coffee with the Commissioner Event will Occur in Two Weeks

 

We are going to continue our online, virtual "Coffee with the Commissioner" events until it is safe to once again resume these in person out in locations throughout Escambia County's District 1.  Our next Coffee event, our 53rd edition, will occur two weeks from this Wednesday--on September 2nd.

This week, we will not have our event due to the election (in which I am a participant)  and I will also be out of state visiting my son Nick who will be starting his second year of law school at Marquette on the 24th.

So our coffee on the 2nd will be all about COVID-19 and how we are reporting the statistics to you, the citizens of the county.  I will have Janice Gilley, County Administrator and Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency manager on the webinar with me on the 2nd.  And I invite you to submit any questions you may have on any aspect of the county's response to the COVID-19 Pandemic to me in advance as either a comment to this blog, an email to me ( District1@myescambia.com ) , or on my Commissioner's Facebook page   https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

Importantly--I will and have been pursuing an important new metric for our dashboard:  Recovered Rate.

I believe this is a critically important data point to present along with all of the other information because as we continuously add the new case numbers to the dashboard--folks are seeing this huge number out of context in my opinion-----as many may falsely believe that number represents the current number of citizens stricken by this virus--even though this number includes cases from as far back as March.  And other states and municipalities have begun taking a 6-week heuristic and applying it to new cases.  Although this is not a perfect, foolproof method for illustrating a "recovered rate"--it is better than what we are doing currently in my opinion.

Simply stated, applying a six week standard to all cases (because after 6 weeks post diagnosis--the vast majority of patients recover with a very small percentage remaining hospitalized past 6-weeks and an even smaller number succumbing to the disease and dying.)  So, to illustrate the recovered numbers better--this sort of a protocol should be added to our dashboard so folks see a more realistic number of local citizens who are infected at a moment in time-----not the TOTAL number diagnosed since the beginning of the pandemic.

This will be a big part of the discussion on September 2nd--I look forward to it.  

 The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, September 2nd-- simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online!

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-8-2020?

It is interesting and informative to look at the data that is coming in regarding the Primary Election that is happening right now in Escambia County.

As a candidate on the ballot for County Commissioner in District 1--it is especially intriguing to watch the election play out in real time--because I certainly have a vested interest in this contest.  

But setting that aside,  It is nevertheless interesting to watch how people are voting this year as we go through the process.

Yes, the election is happening right now as we speak--and yet we are still 10 full days away from the "Official" Election Day, Tuesday August 18th.

That's because MANY are voting by mail this year.  More than normal.  Postage is paid this year by the Supervisor of Elections-and I can only assume that folks want to avoid crowds and socially distance themselves and are therefore voting absentee, as permitted by Florida Law, in greater numbers than in "normal" primary election contests we've recently held locally.

But what is "normal"--given this year and all it has brought to our Nation, State, and County?

Civil unrest, COVID-19 and its associated impacts, and an uncertain economy.  All three of these issues are playing into this local primary election.

County-wide, as of COB yesterday and according to the Supervisor of Elections Website (which is providing excellent real-time data and statistics on the election, day by day and hour by hour) 20,313 Escambia voters have already cast their ballots for this August 18th Primary Election County-wide.  This represents 11.62% of the total number of the 174,860  registered voters county-wide.

But drilling down on District 1, specifically, I see that of the total number of voters that have participated county-wide thus far--an inordinately large portion of these voters are District 1 voters.  Just over 25% of the total number of votes cast thus far, or 5,080 votes, have already been District 1 voters.  This is interesting to see because the natural assumption would be that the total votes cast would be relatively proportional among the five districts at 20% per district of the total.

But this is not the case.  So what is driving the larger turnout in District 1?

It could be a couple of heated state representative primary elections.  In the southern part of District 1 that is Alex Andrade versus Cris Dosev.  In the northern part of District 1--it is Mike Hill versus Michelle Salzman.  

My own District 1 Commissioner's race is surely drawing interest--as all four candidates are running hard, advertising, and campaigning diligently.  This particular race ends on election night, 10 days from now, and the candidate in this race with a plurality of the votes at the end will be commissioner for the next 51 months.  Not a majority, no runoffs, but a plurality takes the checkered flag in 10 days.

Regardless of any of this, one very important fact to note about these local office primary contests is that these off-cycle, non-presidential primary elections typically have notoriously low voter participation-----Always less than 1/3 of eligible voters historically in Escambia County.  Typically, these contests generate between 26-31% turnout.   This is lamentable--because the  County's District specific offices up for election on the ballot in these non-Presidential primary elections are the most important local positions (County Commissioner, School Board Member, ECUA Board Member)--most closely impacting citizens' lives.  And yet most who can vote in these contests, don't vote.  It's really an astonishing reality--but people do what people do.

So what does this all mean, anyway?

Well, here's what it means.  Four years ago, in this off-cycle, non-primary election just 27% of eligible voters cast their ballots county-wide.  The percentage of D1 voters was slightly above 27% in that 2016 contest.  In the 2012 non-Presidential primary election, just over 26% of eligible voters participated.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we would all be lottery millionaires by now--but my educated prediction based upon an exhaustive analysis of the 4 polls I have conducted in my race over the last 6 months, trends I'm seeing on the ground, and real time data that is  being provided on this primary election right now----leads me to believe that roughly 28-29% of eligible voters in D1 will actually cast ballots in this primary election by any means (early, absentee, day of voting).

Now, if I am right in this prediction (which I believe I am)--this could mean that as of right now--- nearly 40% of the total ballots that will be cast in District 1 have already been cast.

And if the absentee ballots continue to pour in this week as they have been--and with early voting going strong for the next 7 days--It is not outside the realm of possibility that by one week from today as much as 55-65% of the total number of votes to be cast in this primary may have been cast--leaving potentially as small as a 35% of total to be cast remaining out on election day.

Imagine that--as much as 2/3 of the votes for an election day cast-----before election day?!?

Watch. 

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1

52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Live Stream This Wednesday--Discussing COVID-19 Impacts on Local Small Businesses with DC Reeves

 

We will be holding our 52nd Coffee with the Commissioner Event online this coming Wednesday, August 12.  We will be live at my Commissioner's Facebook page from 6:30-7:30 AM and we will be discussing the ongoing impact the COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our community.

We will have special guest DC Reeves, owner of Perfect Plain Brewery in Downtown Pensacola and Chief of Staff for the Studer Family of Companies, and director of The Spring--an incubator and mentorship program for small businesses.  DC will be discussing the impacts the economic shutdown for the Pandemic has had on his business and other downtown small businesses.

We will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the webinar to give updates on the county's ongoing efforts at mitigating this pandemic's impacts on our community. 

The 52nd Coffee event will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.   Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

 To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

 "See You" online this Wednesday!

51st Coffee With The Commissioner This Wednesday: COVID-19 and Impacts on Law Enforcement

What are the impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on our local Law Enforcement?  Find out Wednesday as we discuss the Pandemic with Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan

We will be having our 51st Coffee with the Commissioner event this Wednesday morning, August 5th, from 6:30 to 7:30 AM live on Facebook.

As we have been doing, we will once again be focusing on the impacts the devastating COVID-19 Pandemic is having on our local community.

We have previously discussed the economic impacts, the impacts on our faith-based community, our schools, our tourism industry, small businesses, and of course--healthcare.

But what about Law Enforcement?

This week, we will welcome special guest Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan to the program, and we will be discussing the challenges this Pandemic has placed upon the men and women of Law Enforcement.

I'll be asking questions and if you have questions for the Sheriff on this topic--please email them to me or post them as comments to this blog post.

some initial areas of discussion will include the following:

1.  What is the greatest single impact this Pandemic is having on the Escambia County Sheriff's Office?

2.  Is the wearing of PPE, and masks in particular, an difficult issue for the deputies, from a physical standpoint?

3.  Has staffing been an issue as members of the ECSO test positive--and how have you overcome this issue?

4.  Is there an measurable increase in petty thefts, burglaries, and larceny since the pandemic?

5.  With many our of work, and many stuck working from home--has there been an uptick in domestic calls?

6.  Has the pandemic necessitated major changes to any particular aspects of the  work your deputies do for the citizens of Escambia County?

7.  In the unlikely event the Governor shuts our economy down again--many believe this will increase crime as folks will become desperate for necessities.  With the unemployment numbers rising and the economy in deep recession already--is this assumption on crime increasing correct in your opinion?  and if so--how can we get ahead of this?

I look forward to an interesting discussion on these topics Wednesday.  In addition to the Sheriff, we will also have County Administrator Janice Gilley and Escambia County Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore on the call to give an update on the impacts of the Pandemic on Escambia County.

I will ask the salient questions that everyone is asking me.

It will take place this Wednesday morning from 6:30-7:30 AM.  The replay will air on Myescambia.com.

Join us live, and ask your questions in real-time on facebook!

To join the event live Wednesday morning, simply go to https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

"See You" online this Wednesday!