COVID-19 In Escambia County: Ventilators Available Percentage Drops 12 Points in 4 Days....

According to the data contained last night's SITREP on COVID-19 as compared to Friday's same report---Ventilator numbers have increased, but the percentage of available ventilators total at area hospitals has decreased 12% in 4 days.  Worth watching.....

The members of the Escambia Board of County Commissioners are receiving multiple reports daily from multiple sources.

Add to this other information we see in the media and hear from our own circles of acquaintances--and it becomes almost an information overload.

But cutting through all of the noise daily like a giant arctic Icebreaker ship is the SITREP that our Emergency operations folks put together for us and send out each afternoon.

Here is the most recent SITREP from yesterday afternoon 

Lots of good information in here from multiple sources all rolled up.

The intriguing data point I will remain fixed upon is the number of ventilators locally and the percentage of these open and available for patient use.  This is a data point I believe we need to watch very closely as I have stated and for the reasons expressed previously here, here, and here.

In this one area--The percentage available has just dropped precipitously..... (just last Saturday--three days ago--- we had 86% available)  Three days later we sit with 74% available......a 12 percentage point decrease in three days.

Currently, per last evening's sitrep--here is where we are in real time with ventilators at our three local hospitals:

218 Ventilators Total (up 14 from last 204 number  due to the inclusion of Select Specialty Care's ventilator numbers)
162  Ventilators Available  
74% Available

COVID-19 in Escambia County Daily Snapshot: Still a Large Number of Test Results Outstanding

As we see from our latest cumulative report sent to commissioners last night, above, we are starting to get better numbers in terms of positive and negative COVID-19  results reported.  According to the chart above-- provided to us last night--there have been a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests conducted since the beginning of March in Escambia County.  According to this chart, we have received results back for 2,631 of these tests resulting in 136 positive cases and 2,495 negative results.  This still leaves a delta of  1,481 tests for which results have not yet been reported. 

Taking just the data we have and what we know from this local report though, it appears to be encouraging news when looking at it from a percentage of tests producing positive results standpoint;  Knowing we have 2,631 total test results reported back and knowing this has produced, thus far, just 136 positive cases, this results in just a little over a 5% infection rate per test result received.  Right now, the state's dashboard (below) is reporting a 10.8% of test results received infection rate  based upon the test results they have received back thus far.  see dashboard below....

So our infection rate percentage per test result received back in Escambia appears to be less than half of the state's infection percentage per test.  Can this be right?

But I still wonder why there is such a delta between what we know we have collected in tests here and what the state's dashboard reports just this morning (e.g. we know we have results locally for 2,631 tests, yet the state still erroneously lists that total number as 2,075--leaving a delta of 556 results known but not yet reported to the state.)

Equally troubling:  We know we have conducted a total of 4,112 COVID-19 tests yet the state is only reporting results for 2,075 of these.  Why are the results for the other 2,037 tests not yet reported, why this continuing delta of thousands of test results?

Meanwhile, taking the local and more accurate numbers:  If we know our infection rate is about 5% (Half of the state's percentage) and we know we are still awaiting 1,481 results--is it unreasonable to extrapolate that 5% of this still unreported test number will result in a corresponding 74 additional positive cases?  If this is a rational and logical assumption based upon data we have at hand (and it is), then we can logicallly speculate that we have at least 74 additional positive cases locally that are not yet identified, added to the 141 total positives known as of today to get a total number of positives locally, potentially, of 215 cases.

How Many Positive COVID-19 Cases Does Escambia County Really Have?

As of right now, at this very moment,  the state of Florida is reporting that Escambia County has 118 positive cases of COVID-19 in our county.

But is that number even real?

The very latest total specimen collection report we as commissioners have received is posted below.  It was sent out at 8:38 PM last night.  It has data through Friday April 3rd reflected.

Now, looking at this data presented above, we see that in Escambia County a total of 3,898 specimens have been collected (COVID-19 Tests administered).  And this data does not include the latest positive and negative results data from Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this past week.

Nevertheless, we have administered 3,898 total tests in Escambia County as of Friday (and probably more yesterday).

But looking again at the latest information reported on Florida's "Dashboard" just this morning, below, we see a skewed number again, the "total tests" number is only 1,510....

So why does there continue to be a delta between the number of tests we know we have administered locally  and the "total tests" metric on the state's dashboard?  Right now that delta (difference between the number of tests we know we have administered locally compared with what the state is listing as "total tests" in Escambia County) is at least 2,388.   Why has this lag in reporting continued?  More importantly, where are the results for these 2,388 tests we know we have conducted, and why have these results not been reported to the state's dashboard?

We know the test results are coming back faster now; the Mayor of Pensacola got his results back in a little over a day, and others who have been tested last week are getting results reported back within 48 hours.  I am personally aware of this happening.  And the testers who administer the drive through swabs are telling the patients to expect results within 24-48 hours.  With this said--- why does this delta in the figures continue, and why is it growing as compared to the last several times I have measured it here and here?

This is one of the lingering questions I will be asking the expert medical panelists this coming Wednesday morning when I host them on my virtual 34th Coffee with the Commissioner online event.

We were told at Thursday's BCC meeting that the state's "total tests" figure on their dashboard actually, simply means "test results received."  So why not simply call it that?!?

The current nomenclature the state is using creates confusion and uncertainty and is needlessly vague.

But setting that aside, here is what really concerns me:

Seeing the trends statewide---the percentage of positive test results is running at nearly 11%.  The percentage for Escambia County--if we look at the total number of "test results received" and the concomitant percentage of positive test results reported locally as a percentage of the total-- is currently running 7.8%--less than the state average percentage.

So here is the deal.  Is it irrational to believe, knowing we have 2,388 test results not yet reported, that we actually have 7.8% of those tests probably coming back positive?  I don't believe it is irrational.  I believe it is logical.

So how many positive COVID-19 cases does Escambia County really have at the moment--taking the total reported and adding in 7.8% of the total tests conducted but not yet received?

A logical "deduction" , based upon the data and statistics as we currently know know them to be, would be our total  real number could be actual 304 Positive COVID-19 Cases in Escambia County Presently!

Yes, it could be lower.  It could be.

But logic and reason dictates that based upon the evidence the number locally is at least 304 or more.

Join us for our 34th Coffee with the Commissioner, Online, This Wednesday Morning 6:30-7:30AM

We are having a virtual "Coffee with the Commissioner" event this Wednesday morning.  This will be our office's 34th such event.

With the Chinese Coronavirus/COVID-19 Pandemic happening worldwide, and because of the guidance from our President and our Governor--we are doing these events online now.  We look forward to the day when we can once again do these meetings in person out in our community---but for now we have to do these virtually, online.

But the great news is that under this format--- you and everyone else can now more easily participate in real time and ask your questions of the panel I am putting together for this event.

Just get your questions ready and log in Wednesday morning and come over to my facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/ ,

This week we will have the following special guests on the ZOOM call to discuss our local response to the COVID-19 crisis:

Dawn Rudolph, President and CEO of Ascension Sacred Heart Hospital Pensacola
Justin Labrato,  President of Ascension Medical Group
Janice Gilley, Escambia County Administrator
Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency Management Director

We will stream this live and you can comment on the string with your question (s) for the panelists, or you can email them to me in advance to district1@myescambia.com or you can just watch and listen to the information that will be put out regarding this situation we are all in as a result of the virus.

Check out last week's Coffee with Mark Faulkner, President and CEO of Baptist Healthcare, HERE

Check out our previous Coffee with Dr. John Lanza, Director of the Escambia Health Dept.  HERE

See you online this Wednesday morning!

A Tidbit of Good News Locally in the Fight Against Coronavirus? Yes! 86% of Area Hospital Ventilators Available

As of yesterday afternoon's Escambia County Emergency Operations Center SITREP--Escambia County's 3 Hospitals report 86% of total ventilators are open, available for patient use.

In the midst of all the gloom and doom over the Chinese Coronavirus/ COVID-19  Pandemic and the devastating impacts we as a nation are enduring because of this virus----there is a tiny bright spot of hope locally in Escambia County that is worth reporting.

Under the ESF 8 section of yesterday afternoon's Escambia County EOC's Daily COVID-19 SITREP, a telling statistic was added.  

Ventilators.

How many ventilators do we have locally total, and how many are currently utilized. Taking these two numbers together we can work out the percentage of the total that are currently free in real time.

Right now that percentage stands at 86% available and ready for use if necessary by patients

This is actually up three percentage points from earlier this week when I reported this stat on this blog.

I asked this 15 days ago at our meeting in mid-march, and I have been asking ever since. 

I've been asking county admin to acquire this data from the hospitals daily and to add this information to our SITREP daily in real time.  I also asked about the number of Hospital beds total we have locally because this is another  I think this needs to be put out daily to reassure the population locally that we are not experiencing the shortages like other areas are, namely New York, Michigan, California, and New Orleans.

Both of these metrics are now officially in our SITREP that goes out daily.

And we do need to watch it daily, this percentage.  It will be our trip wire, early warning system, canary in the coalmine.  It will tell us if we are going to experience a situation like these other areas are dealing with currently.

The other thing to be mindful of:  In New York for example, the Governor there is having the National Guard forcefully take ventilators from that state's other communities that do not have large virus outbreaks so that these units can be transferred to New York City, where there is a desperate need for more ventilators.  Could that happen here?  Could our available ventilators be requisitioned for Miami and other areas of S. Florida where they are having a bigger problem that we are having here?  Because, what if that happens and then our cases expand to the point that the ventilators remaining are inadequate for our citizens?  Then what?

Right now it is simply a hypothetical.  Thankfully.

We all need to watch this closely!

Per last night's SITREP

We have a total of 204 Ventilators between the three major Hospitals in Escambia County. (reduced from 227 previously reported due to the erroneous counting of neonatal ventilators by one of our hospitals).

176 Ventilators are open and available.  176 divided by 204 indicates a ventilator figure,  open and available locally,  of 86%

Locally we have 1334 Hospital Beds and the number occupied is 737, leaving a total of 597 available, as of yesterday's SITREP

This equates to about 45% of local hospital beds available at the moment.

Escambia's Public Beaches Will Remain Closed Pending Further Action by the Board of County Commissioners

By a 4-1 vote at this evening's Board of County Commissioners meeting, the Board voted to keep the public beaches of Escambia County closed for the near term.

This closing of the beaches is being done in order to curb the spread of COVID-19 in our area--in conjunction with other drastic measures being taken statewide and county-wide. 

The precise motion was that the beaches would remain closed until such time as the Board takes action to open the beaches.  There was a discussion among board members and many comments from the community were submitted electronically.

Commissioners Bender, May,  Barry and I voted to keep the beaches closed.

Commissioner Underhill wanted the beaches to be reopened, and was the lone vote against the motion to keep the beaches closed.

33rd Coffee with the Commissioner Event Goes Virtual!

This morning we had our 33rd "Coffee with a Commissioner" event from 6:30-7:30.

Because of the Worldwide COVID-19 pandemic we have taken our coffee meetings out of our usual stops (McDonalds, Hardees, and Denny's) and we are going all online.

This morning we had special guests Mark Faulkner, President and CEO of Baptist Healthcare,  Janice Gilley, Escambia County Administrator, and Eric Gilmore, Escambia County Emergency Manager along for the coffee.

And we took questions for the panel that we convened on the Zoom video conferencing platform, in real time, from our Facebook Live Stream that we ran simultaneously.

Lots of great topics covered, lots of great answers.

Is there a shortage of PPE for doctors and nurses in Escambia County?

Should the beaches remain closed?

How come the test result data is not updated in real time on the state's "Dashboard?"

Should everyone wear masks--seems there is contradictory advice that is shifting?

How many ventilators do we have in the area?  What is the current availability as a percentage of the total number of ventilators?

These and many other questions and topics were addressed.

You can watch the full video on facebook here

And we will be back next week with another special guest as well as Janice Gilley and Eric Gilmore.
We will keep doing these weekly until this crisis passes---in the meantime, be sure to send me any questions you would like me to ask next week-----and to all the Facebook commenters that submitted questions--I will start next week's meeting by asking the ones we didn't have time to get to today!

See you all "online" next Wednesday morning at 6:30AM!