FASCINATING COVID-19 Data Points----Really Telling and Really Interesting

 

25% of nearly 3500 Asymptomatic patients tested for COVID-19 since Christmas are testing positive for the virus.  This is a very telling number.  What does that mean for the entire population though--could we use that percentage to extrapolate for our entire county's 320,000 residents?

Anyone and everyone can regurgitate FDOH statistics and data numbers.  Lots of people track the positivity numbers and the negative test results etc..  And that's all great.  I follow these numbers daily myself, as I have since this all started last year at this time.

But some interesting stats have been hard to get.

It took me 6 months of pressing to FINALLY get the "Recovered" number added to the County's COVID-19 dashboard.  I have subsequently taken heat because I pressed for that.  Some people don't like the term "recovered" because some COVID-19 patients don't die---yet they suffer significant ongoing medical issues.  That is a fair question and reasonable criticism--but I do not believe it means we shouldn't track the percentages and numbers that "Survive" a COVID-19 Diagnosis.  Perhaps we should change that term from "recovered" to "survived"--I don't know.  

Meanwhile--I recently heard from our Hospital administrators and testing partners that of 100% of nearly 5000 citizens locally in the 2-County Area (Santa Rosa and Escambia) being tested since Christmas----70% are asymptomatic and 30% present with flu-like symptoms.

So, naturally, I asked for the important data from those percentages:  What percentage of the 70% asymptomatic test subjects came back with a positive result for COVID-19?

"We are not tracking that" was the initial response.   "Why NOT?!?" was my reply.

So I asked for this number and I received some FASCINATING information back from the hospital staff with whom I spoke, with percentages, in my email box.  Full disclosure--the verbal disclaimer from these folks was that this was a rough order of magnitude, "Back of the envelope" number.  But still, it is interesting and it is a lot higher number than many would have suspected... From the email:

"Good morning, I wanted to give you the stats since Christmas that we discussed on the phone yesterday. Since Christmas, we still have about 70% of patients being COVID tested in Escambia County who do not have symptoms and 30% who do have symptoms. Of the people with symptoms - they are running at a 41% positive rate in Escambia county since Christmas. Of the people without symptoms - they are running at a 25% positive rate since Christmas." 

COVID-19 and Escambia County's "Dashboard-Delta" for 3-30-2020---2,122 Tests Unaccounted For......Why?

As of COB yesterday, 3-29-2020 (per this graph, above, that was sent out by staff)  there have been a total of 2,750 COVID-19 tests administered locally over the last month in Escambia County.

But this morning on Florida's COVID-19 Dashboard, below, it lists "total tested" number now as 628.

The delta between how many tests have been performed and how many the state lists as "total tested" is growing now, to 2122 tests. 

We know getting the results back is resulting in a lag in reporting, at least that's what we are being told.  But why does the State of Florida's dashboard not list the correct number of tests administered, 2,750, but rather a much smaller number 628??  And where does the 628 figure come from?  It isn't accurate, and the delta this week is bigger than it was late last week.

Last week that delta was 1,958 tests....

Will This Memo Break the Test-Result Reporting Logjam? How Will it Be Enforced?

This Document, above,  was sent to commissioners yesterday afternoon.  It had been forwarded to labs earlier in the week.  Is this law being enforced right now?  Why are we not getting test report results back when state law dictates this happen?  Why this gentle reminder?  Who is enforcing this law, and are there any penalties for the non-compliers?  What are the penalties and will they be applied?

As the country and our county struggle with big decisions in the midst of the worldwide Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic---more and more folks are putting their collective fingers right on the jugular vein of the biggest problem:  Lack of good, timely test results data/information.

In Florida the issue is especially acute.

In Escambia County, for instance, we know that we have collected more than 2,400 COVID-19 test specimens over the last month.  Yet the state Department of Health has only reported results on the official dashboard for 581 tests. 

So where are the results for the nearly 1,800 additional tests?

Late yesterday afternoon, Dr. Lanza from the Florida Department of Health in Escambia County sent an interesting update, and in the update a document was included urging.---no, DEMANDING--- that ALL labs, public and private, must share COVID -19 results with the Department of Health.  This sharing must be done immediately with no delay, and the memo cites the Florida Statutes that mandate this.

There have been delays, and when I have asked very direct questions like "If a screened patient in Escambia County is notified of a positive COVID -19 test by his physician or by a laboratory---is the notifying Hospital or laboratory also simultaneously notifying the Florida Department of Health?  How do we know this?  If this is not happening, what can be done to compel this to happen?

To which I have received shoulder shrug answers back.  This is not good enough, and obviously we are not the only ones experiencing this problem.

Others in Florida besides county commissioners in Escambia County like me have seen this delayed response/reporting phenomenon as a CRITICAL problem.

Folks are blaming the labs, but is this really where the problem lies?

The labs, and the HOSPITALs themselves need to be much more forthcoming with what exactly is causing the hold up on results reporting to the state.

Without timely, accurate results---we as policy makers CANNOT make good, solid, rational (not emotional) decisions.

Until I get good answers, I am going to continue to ask about this until I see results.  This Wednesday when I host my 33rd Coffee with the Commissioner event--I will ask this specifically of my guests--County Administrator Janice Gilley, Emergency Manager Eric Gilmore, and Baptist Healthcare President Mark Faulkner.

You can tune in this Wednesday, April 1st, at 6:30 AM and send in your questions in real time at my Commissioner's Facebook site:  https://www.facebook.com/CommissionerBergosh/

How Many COVID-19 Tests Have Been Conducted in Escambia County to Date?

According to our latest figures provided by staff as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday, the daily breakdown of tests (above) indicates that as a community there has been a total of 2,404 tests for COVID 19 conducted since March 5th.

But here we go with the opaque data........Early last week, the Florida COVID-19 dashboard listed a data point "total tests" in their Escambia County testing information column.

That is now gone, no longer listed.

As of this morning, the state Department of health Dashboard for Escambia County only lists "results" for a total of 446 tests.  (and the positive and negative results now have to be added manually to get the total number of tests administered.)  Nevertheless--this data is wrong.  There is an outstanding delta between the tests we know we have conducted and what is being reported.  And it's a big number, 1,958 tests with no results yet reported.

Where are the results for these other 1,958 tests that have been conducted over the last month in Escambia County?

Why are these results not being shared on the dashboard?

Are the individual patients that have been tested being given their results separately from the DOH?

Are the hospitals sharing results with patients and the DOH in real time, or is there a lag?  Are the hospitals NOT sharing the test results they get back and disclose to patients?  If not, why?

And why are the tests still taking so long to get back from the lab?---------especially since we were told 8 days ago that Sacred Heart Hospital has a 4-hour test capability on site now that can push  a minimum of 50 test results daily out?

Too many questions are going unanswered, and the lack of transparency is feeding insecurity among a lot of people here.

How Many COVID-19 Tests Have Been Administered in Escambia County?

According to county staff that have been working this issue nonstop for weeks now, there has been a total of 1,968 COVID-19 Tests administered locally since the outbreak.  But the state's official tally lists only 237----so what is causing such a huge disconnect?

The testing protocols in the midst of this COVID-19 outbreak are leaving many residents and policymakers frustrated.

Hundreds of tests have been administered in Escambia County since the outbreak.  The number is nearly in the thousands!

Yet the results reported on the state's dashboard indicate that only 237 tests have been performed in the county??  What is going on, and why is there such a delta between the number of tests we know have been conducted and the number that have been reported?

This needs to be figured out, and sorted out quickly.  We need better information and quicker turnaround on data dissemination.

The public deserves it, and policymakers from cities and counties all the way up the ladder to congress need good, solid data.  Without it--it is impossible to implement balanced solutions--not too light and not too draconian.

Right now, we are not getting the data we need.

More sobering:  Can we trust anything on that dashboard if we know the data for just our county (1 of 67) is so inaccurate?

Drive Through Coronavirus/COVID 19 Testing Center Coming to Escambia County Tomorrow.....

Beginning Monday morning, March 16th at 6:00 AM---area residents will have a drive through testing capability for COVID 19 testing/screening.  Unlike a fast food drive through, though, one must call a screening hotline first......

According to the below email that was sent to community leaders late Saturday evening--Ascension Healthcare/Sacred Heart Hospital in Pensacola is establishing a drive through testing center for COVID 19 on Monday, March 16th.

What isn't clear from this brief email is who can come and be tested. But there is a phone number listed for pre-screening must be completed beforehand.

This is forward progress --- which over the last week has seemed to be a bit shaky to the average observer like me.....not unlike a go-cart being built after it is rolling down the hill.

Meanwhile, in the West African nation of Senegal it is reported that testing is happening without delay and results are coming back in as little as 4 hours.

If Senegal can do this, why can't we?

From Sacred Heart's email:

"Subject: Regional drive-through testing center for COVID-19 opens Monday In Pensacola

On Monday, March 16, 2020, Ascension Medical Group Sacred Heart is opening our first regional drive-through testing center for COVID-19 at 5192 Bayou Blvd. in Pensacola, Florida.

All patients are required to be screened before arriving at the drive-through testing center by calling the Ascension Sacred Heart COVID-19 Screening Call Center at (850) 746-2684.  The screening call center will open on March 16, 2020 at 6am and will be open M-F from 6am-10pm.

For the week of March 16^th, the hours of operation for the drive-through testing center for COVID-19 will be 9am-1pm.

 Please let me know if you have any questions.

Thank you"