What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-15-2020?

 Early voting has now ended in Escambia County for the August 18th Primary Election.  As of COB yesterday--Countywide 19.60% of registered voters had cast their collective ballots already either by early voting or by absentee ballot as allowed by law.  The countywide number of early votes is static now--as that voting has concluded.  Absentee ballots, however, will continue to arrive and be counted Monday and Tuesday--so it appears that it will be a 20% turnout at least by the time physical, at-precinct ballots begin to be cast Tuesday.

So how many votes will that leave for election day on Tuesday?  What percentage of votes are still out and to be expected on election day?

As I predicted last week, I believe the majority of votes for this primary have already been cast, and that the majority of the votes will have been made via absentee.  I believe we will have a bump on election day, which will push the total a bit higher and that will ultimately be a larger number total than the early voter total, but less than the absentee vote total.  I arrive at this conclusion by looking at the turnout in non-presidential primary elections in Escambia County over the last 15 years--where turnout for such primaries was as follows:

2018-30.8% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2016-27% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2014-16.78% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2012-26.34% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2010-25.15% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2008-25.31% of eligible voters voted in the primary

2006-29.88% of eligible voters voted in the primary

So throwing out the outliers in 2014 and 2018 while averaging the other years gives an average participation percentage (of total eligible voters) of  26.73.  I happen to believe that the actual percentage of voters that will participate in this election will be a bit higher, but not much.  I believe it will be between 27.5%-29%.  And with 20% effectively in the bag already via early and absentee votes cast through yesterday--this means a whopping 69% to 73% of voters that will vote in this year's primary----again using historical data to estimate this--have already cast their ballots.

This means only 27%-31% of the total votes are yet to be cast and counted.  Meaning the election, for the most part, has already happened.

So what does this mean for my primary, the one I am competing in right now and that ends on Tuesday?

With 8,635 votes cast thus far equating to 18.24% eligible District 1 voters, and assuming the middle of the estimated participation range I described above, or 28.5% of eligible voters total to turn out----I'm predicting that 13, 489 voters total will participate in my primary election in District 1.  With 8,635 having already cast their ballots--this leaves just 4,854 left to be cast on Tuesday--just over one-third of the total that will be cast.  Or put another way---2/3 of this primary is already "in the can."

But hey, it's 2020 and this year with COVID-19 and a crashing economy plus hyper-toxic politics---this  is anything but your average year.  

Therefore anything could happen.

Watch.

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-8-2020?

It is interesting and informative to look at the data that is coming in regarding the Primary Election that is happening right now in Escambia County.

As a candidate on the ballot for County Commissioner in District 1--it is especially intriguing to watch the election play out in real time--because I certainly have a vested interest in this contest.  

But setting that aside,  It is nevertheless interesting to watch how people are voting this year as we go through the process.

Yes, the election is happening right now as we speak--and yet we are still 10 full days away from the "Official" Election Day, Tuesday August 18th.

That's because MANY are voting by mail this year.  More than normal.  Postage is paid this year by the Supervisor of Elections-and I can only assume that folks want to avoid crowds and socially distance themselves and are therefore voting absentee, as permitted by Florida Law, in greater numbers than in "normal" primary election contests we've recently held locally.

But what is "normal"--given this year and all it has brought to our Nation, State, and County?

Civil unrest, COVID-19 and its associated impacts, and an uncertain economy.  All three of these issues are playing into this local primary election.

County-wide, as of COB yesterday and according to the Supervisor of Elections Website (which is providing excellent real-time data and statistics on the election, day by day and hour by hour) 20,313 Escambia voters have already cast their ballots for this August 18th Primary Election County-wide.  This represents 11.62% of the total number of the 174,860  registered voters county-wide.

But drilling down on District 1, specifically, I see that of the total number of voters that have participated county-wide thus far--an inordinately large portion of these voters are District 1 voters.  Just over 25% of the total number of votes cast thus far, or 5,080 votes, have already been District 1 voters.  This is interesting to see because the natural assumption would be that the total votes cast would be relatively proportional among the five districts at 20% per district of the total.

But this is not the case.  So what is driving the larger turnout in District 1?

It could be a couple of heated state representative primary elections.  In the southern part of District 1 that is Alex Andrade versus Cris Dosev.  In the northern part of District 1--it is Mike Hill versus Michelle Salzman.  

My own District 1 Commissioner's race is surely drawing interest--as all four candidates are running hard, advertising, and campaigning diligently.  This particular race ends on election night, 10 days from now, and the candidate in this race with a plurality of the votes at the end will be commissioner for the next 51 months.  Not a majority, no runoffs, but a plurality takes the checkered flag in 10 days.

Regardless of any of this, one very important fact to note about these local office primary contests is that these off-cycle, non-presidential primary elections typically have notoriously low voter participation-----Always less than 1/3 of eligible voters historically in Escambia County.  Typically, these contests generate between 26-31% turnout.   This is lamentable--because the  County's District specific offices up for election on the ballot in these non-Presidential primary elections are the most important local positions (County Commissioner, School Board Member, ECUA Board Member)--most closely impacting citizens' lives.  And yet most who can vote in these contests, don't vote.  It's really an astonishing reality--but people do what people do.

So what does this all mean, anyway?

Well, here's what it means.  Four years ago, in this off-cycle, non-primary election just 27% of eligible voters cast their ballots county-wide.  The percentage of D1 voters was slightly above 27% in that 2016 contest.  In the 2012 non-Presidential primary election, just over 26% of eligible voters participated.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we would all be lottery millionaires by now--but my educated prediction based upon an exhaustive analysis of the 4 polls I have conducted in my race over the last 6 months, trends I'm seeing on the ground, and real time data that is  being provided on this primary election right now----leads me to believe that roughly 28-29% of eligible voters in D1 will actually cast ballots in this primary election by any means (early, absentee, day of voting).

Now, if I am right in this prediction (which I believe I am)--this could mean that as of right now--- nearly 40% of the total ballots that will be cast in District 1 have already been cast.

And if the absentee ballots continue to pour in this week as they have been--and with early voting going strong for the next 7 days--It is not outside the realm of possibility that by one week from today as much as 55-65% of the total number of votes to be cast in this primary may have been cast--leaving potentially as small as a 35% of total to be cast remaining out on election day.

Imagine that--as much as 2/3 of the votes for an election day cast-----before election day?!?

Watch. 

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1