Thoughts on the Primary Part IV: Was I Overly Magnanimous When I Said My Opponents Didn't Go Negative?

 

A picture of an Andy Marlette cartoon similar to this one (above) hangs currently outside the office of the District 2 Escambia County Commissioner.  This one, above, is a much better version of it though!

After it became apparent I won the election on August 18th, I was called first by Jonathan Owens who congratulated me on the victory and conceded the election.  A short time later, I received a similar call from Jesse Casey.  He and I had a great conversation and we discussed the potential of collaborating on a number of issues going forward for the betterment of the district and the county.

So naturally, when called by the media that same night, I was in high spirits and a great mood, and I was gracious and magnanimous when quick to point out my perception that the race was by and large a "clean, issues-focused contest."  This was my perception based upon the fact that I had blinders on and I DID NOT look at social chat sites in this election for the most part--- and instead I remained focused on my race and the finish line and the checkered flag on August 18th. 

So was I overly magnanimous when I said my opponents didn't go negative?

Since the election, I have now had the opportunity to peruse several web sites, Facebook sites, etc.  I also watched a "Blab" TV special one of my opponents was apparently running during the election. Sadly--the local realtor who was the "host" of this "program" made some statements about me and my family that were straight up lies.  Outright, bald-faced lies.  And this particular opponent DID NOT correct his host as he should have done.  This is disappointing.  This was a negative attack by proxy based upon false information--a set-up job.  This opponent ultimately came in third place, being beaten badly by both myself (by 17 points) and by Jesse Casey (by 8 points).  This same individual posted pictures and videos with characters wearing ridiculous monster costumes and #hashtag signs talking about what he deserved.....blah, blah, blah.  

 

Dancing in monster-costumes with ridiculous hashtag signs in the streets

didn't help this year's 3rd place finisher.  He still lost, and he lost badly...

It meant nothing and worked for him about as well as a belly-flop from the high dive in a pool drained of water. Newsflash:  In local contests folks do not like negative ads and they do not work!  And by the way, as Clint Eastwood famously quipped in one of his movies---"deserve's got nothing to do with it!"  and this opponent in this election was dispatched, handily, along with the costumed creatures and ridiculous hashtags..

I've also come into possession of some campaign literature from my opponents that I did not know existed on election night.  I was not aware until after the campaign that the second place finisher in the election put my picture on one of his mailers exclaiming that I "bicker" instead of work.  Sorry to see this---because listen--if you have to resort to putting an image or likeness of your opponent on your mail-piece--that is going negative.  Believe me, I wouldn't do it ever because it is an attack--even by the picture that is used it can be construed as an attack.  And it should not be done--people don't like this.  This particular opponent came in 2nd place.  For the third straight election.....

An example of a negative attack on opponents contained in one of the mailers from 2016 3rd place finisher (of 3 candidates in that race) in the D1 Commission primary Karen Sindel--where she attempted a silly "report-card" style shtick utilizing the worst pictures available of her opponents combined with ridiculous claims

So let's talk about a positive campaign versus a negative campaign, and what a negative attack campaign is.......

A positive campaign never mentions one's opponent and does not bash him/her.  A positive campaign describes the attributes the candidate will bring to the position, his/her experience, his/her vision, his/her strategy, his/her endorsements, his/her education and achievements, etc. etc.  These are the types of campaigns I have consistently run in every campaign in which I have participated.  I have NEVER ONCE printed an image of an opponent on any mail piece or on my website.  Because to do so is negative.

Negative campaigns come from candidates that are desperate and lacking vision and/or resources and/or a message that resonates with voters.  Some common themes of negative campaigns are:

--Lying about an opponent's record.

--Using surrogates to attack an opponent to keep hands clean.

--Putting an opponent's likeness on campaign literature

--Naming (by title or name)an opponent in a negative light--disparaging him/her.

Unfortunately--as I now take the time necessary to look at the multiple websites and literature of all my opponents in this race--it appears that I was overly magnanimous in my assessment of the election.  I was simply unaware of the savage attacks online and on mail pieces that were happening during the campaign.

Nope, this was a dirty, ugly campaign after all--that did not have to be.  Truly disappointing.

But hey, in 4 years and 2 months we can do it all over again if folks want to.  In 50 months--we can go again!  (wow that is a LONG time--reminds me of Leslie Nielsen's scene in Creepshow--"I can hold my breath for a long time!....")    

I'll be ready, I'll be waiting, I'll be POSITIVE, and most importantly---I'll once again be victorious should I choose to run again for this office.

50 Months... Jeez, that's a long, long time from now......

Thoughts on the Primary Part III: How Did the Polling Play Out; How Did it Compare to Election Day Vote?

A picture of an Andy Marlette cartoon similar to this one (above) hangs currently outside the office of the District 2 Escambia County Commissioner.  This one, above, is a much better version of it though!

Winning an election is something that requires diligent effort, family and friends' support, intelligence, the right candidate, the right message, intuition, deft marketing, good campaign literature/materials, a strong campaign  "team,"-- and money.

As I proceeded with my campaign this go round in 2020--I knew it would be a tough election for me.  And this was even before COVID-19 and the difficulties this pandemic has caused all candidates in all races.  

We have a major FDOT (state) road project that is running 18 months behind schedule and causing MAJOR traffic issues to the largest area of my district, I have multiple neighborhoods with major drainage issues for which they blame me, and there are hundreds of citizens that are mad about runaway growth out in NW District 1----and blame me for all of it even though much of it was approved prior to my assumption of this office in late 2016. Add to this the OLF 8 development that has angered many  AND--there were/are active multiple facebook chat sites that have a couple of dozen members each  that disparage me continuously on a regular basis---- fomenting anger and hostility towards me constantly---attempting to remove me at election time.  This combined with what would prove to be a dismally small percentage of voters actually participating in this off-cycle primary election (more than 2/3 of the voters did not vote in the August 18th Primary Election)--and conditions were ripe for my potential ouster from this office; the conditions were perfect for a challenger to be successful against me in this election.  And I knew it.

So having the right message, the right strategy, and the right data, was critical for me to win re-election.

When I successfully ran for this office first in 2015-2016----I was fortunate in that I was able to go to 8,637 District 1 houses personally, door to door.  I learned a lot about what was/is important to citizens then, which allowed me the knowledge to put together a first hundred day plan for that election.

I utilized that information, plus input from citizens garnered this time from four years on the job talking to constituents in town halls, at coffee meetings, and at advisory committee meetings in order to formulate a guidance document, a strategic plan, that would be the centerpiece of my election.  I called that plan NEXT4Escambia--and it was very well received by citizens and I will be putting the ideas from that plan forward over the next four years now that I have won this election. 

POLLING DATA WAS THE KEY TO THIS ELECTION FOR ME

Nothing was more important and key to my victory than the data I gleaned from my multiple polling done with Gravis Marketing, though.  Nothing else even came close....

There were, to my knowledge, 7 polls run in my race for re-election as the D1 County Commissioner.  Of these 7--I have the results of 6 of them as 2 were run and published by INWeekly-and I personally ran 4 polls myself with Gravis Marketing: On February 1st, May 25th, June 26th, and July 22nd--I ran polls with similar questions in order to triangulate my position in the race in real time in the lead up to election day.  The 7th poll run was (I believe) put out in early July and it was a three-question survey that asked about the Presidential contest, my D1 race, and then one other question.  I believe Jesse's team ran that one and I never saw the results.  My guess is that I probably had a 10-point lead over Jesse at that point, and a 20 point lead over Jonathan.  Jimmie Trotter was never a factor in the race according to my polling.

I was never behind in any poll of which I was aware--even though some mixed signals were intentionally sent from "Rick's Blog" the day before the election--falsely intimating I was not leading every poll and not the front-runner but rather "in the running"--whatever that was supposed to mean.  It was bad information, fake news.  I led EVERY poll and was always the front-runner in this campaign and I challenge Rick Outzen or anyone else for that matter to show me data pointing to anything but this. (And the fact that Rick Outzen put out messaging signalling I was not leading in all polls is not surprising;  the fact he never disclosed that his pollster is/was Jesse Casey's Campaign Manager also--well that was a complete lapse in journalistic integrity.  Complete.  But not surprising.)

So from all of this polling data, I quickly ascertained that my only real competition in the race was Jesse Casey.  I held a large lead over him and the rest of the field in the early polling, but he steadily eroded this lead in each successive poll, and he had momentum going into election day.  Here is the way the polling looked, among Decided D1 voters of all parties through the first part of this year leading up to the election in my polling:

                     Feb 1st                May 11th                June 25th                July 19th               Primary (8-18)                        

Bergosh         52%                     46%                       45%                           42%                            38.7%                         

Casey             31%                    30%                        33%                           34%                            31.02%

Owens           13%                     16%                        17%                           14%                            22.48%

Trotter            4%                      8%                           5%                            10%                              7.8%

So the glide slope to the election was pretty consistent, with me in the 40s, Jesse in the low 30s, Jonathan in the teens (and trending downward in the last poll before the election) and Trotter struggling to get out of single digits.

The big surprise for me on Election Day was the extent to which Jonathan rose and Jesse and I went backwards.  I had predicted a much closer election margin between Jesse and I;  I had predicted it

Bergosh 40%, Casey 35%, Owens 18% and Trotter 7%.  My prediction was close, however Jonathan managed an 8.5 point rally that actually pulled from all the other candidates somewhat equally;  3.3% from me, 3% from Jesse, and 2.2% from Trotter.  And that is how we got where we ended up on election day.  And that is how I won this election.  With hard work, a good team, but most importantly with good data.

Thoughts on the Primary Part II: Who Were the Candidates?

A picture of an Andy Marlette Cartoon similar to this one (above) hangs currently outside the office of the District 2 Escambia County Commissioner.  My version is much better though!

Now that the race for the District 1 Commissioner is over, and I have prevailed, there have been some lingering questions put to me by some friends and also some online haters about this race.  Because I won in the primary and there is no General Election opponent of a different party--I will (if the Good Lord wills it and I don't die) serve the next 4 years and 3 months as the D1 commissioner.  But there are curious questions out there from some.....

So I'm going to go through some of the salient aspects of the race over the next week in a series of blog posts and then this one will officially be in the history books and my rear-view mirror forever as I serve the next nearly 51 months as commissioner, as the 2020 victor in this race.

After my General Election victory in November of 2016 by a 69%-31% Margin--- I knew I was going to run for re-election for my D1 commission seat in 2020--as there were/are a ton of issues in the works for which I wanted to see to completion. So I pre-filed early, in October of 2018.  I subsequently mapped out a fundraising strategy that included two (2) major fundraisers in 2019 (March and October) which were smashing successes and which allowed me the war-chest necessary to conduct a proper and successful campaign.

On April 2nd of 2019 (my birthday), Jesse Casey pre-filed to run against me.  This would be his third run at the office--after having been defeated in both the 2012 and 2016 primary elections.  Full disclosure-I think highly of Jesse;  I even hired him to do some concrete work at my house in early 2018.  And he did great work on a concrete slab at my house.  At the completion of that project he and I were talking, and I asked if he was going to run again, against me, and he was honest and forthright saying "Yes, I'm probably going to run again."  And he did.

In January of 2020 District 2 Commissioner Doug Underhill's office aide had received an attorney's opinion that he could keep his job with D2 at the county while also running in a partisan election against me for the D1 seat.  So Jonathan Owens, office aide to Doug Underhill,  pre-filed to run in early January of this year to run against me as well.

(The PNJ took interest in this race early, and asked my opinion about it.  I correctly predicted the outcome in this PNJ article from January 10th when I stated there would be no change to whom it was that occupied this seat after the primary.  I was right.)

Early in the spring of 2020, the fourth candidate, Jimmie Trotter, pre-filed.

So we had a four-man Republican primary race, and upon the final date for candidate filing when no NPA or DEM candidate filed--I knew it would be an election settled in the primary.

I also knew it would be an election that would not have a runoff, as in Florida---partisan primary runoff elections have been discontinued for years.  

It would be an election where the candidate with the most votes on primary election day, August 18th, would be the victor.

What's the State of the Primary Election in District 1 as of Close of Business (COB) yesterday-- 8-8-2020?

It is interesting and informative to look at the data that is coming in regarding the Primary Election that is happening right now in Escambia County.

As a candidate on the ballot for County Commissioner in District 1--it is especially intriguing to watch the election play out in real time--because I certainly have a vested interest in this contest.  

But setting that aside,  It is nevertheless interesting to watch how people are voting this year as we go through the process.

Yes, the election is happening right now as we speak--and yet we are still 10 full days away from the "Official" Election Day, Tuesday August 18th.

That's because MANY are voting by mail this year.  More than normal.  Postage is paid this year by the Supervisor of Elections-and I can only assume that folks want to avoid crowds and socially distance themselves and are therefore voting absentee, as permitted by Florida Law, in greater numbers than in "normal" primary election contests we've recently held locally.

But what is "normal"--given this year and all it has brought to our Nation, State, and County?

Civil unrest, COVID-19 and its associated impacts, and an uncertain economy.  All three of these issues are playing into this local primary election.

County-wide, as of COB yesterday and according to the Supervisor of Elections Website (which is providing excellent real-time data and statistics on the election, day by day and hour by hour) 20,313 Escambia voters have already cast their ballots for this August 18th Primary Election County-wide.  This represents 11.62% of the total number of the 174,860  registered voters county-wide.

But drilling down on District 1, specifically, I see that of the total number of voters that have participated county-wide thus far--an inordinately large portion of these voters are District 1 voters.  Just over 25% of the total number of votes cast thus far, or 5,080 votes, have already been District 1 voters.  This is interesting to see because the natural assumption would be that the total votes cast would be relatively proportional among the five districts at 20% per district of the total.

But this is not the case.  So what is driving the larger turnout in District 1?

It could be a couple of heated state representative primary elections.  In the southern part of District 1 that is Alex Andrade versus Cris Dosev.  In the northern part of District 1--it is Mike Hill versus Michelle Salzman.  

My own District 1 Commissioner's race is surely drawing interest--as all four candidates are running hard, advertising, and campaigning diligently.  This particular race ends on election night, 10 days from now, and the candidate in this race with a plurality of the votes at the end will be commissioner for the next 51 months.  Not a majority, no runoffs, but a plurality takes the checkered flag in 10 days.

Regardless of any of this, one very important fact to note about these local office primary contests is that these off-cycle, non-presidential primary elections typically have notoriously low voter participation-----Always less than 1/3 of eligible voters historically in Escambia County.  Typically, these contests generate between 26-31% turnout.   This is lamentable--because the  County's District specific offices up for election on the ballot in these non-Presidential primary elections are the most important local positions (County Commissioner, School Board Member, ECUA Board Member)--most closely impacting citizens' lives.  And yet most who can vote in these contests, don't vote.  It's really an astonishing reality--but people do what people do.

So what does this all mean, anyway?

Well, here's what it means.  Four years ago, in this off-cycle, non-primary election just 27% of eligible voters cast their ballots county-wide.  The percentage of D1 voters was slightly above 27% in that 2016 contest.  In the 2012 non-Presidential primary election, just over 26% of eligible voters participated.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we would all be lottery millionaires by now--but my educated prediction based upon an exhaustive analysis of the 4 polls I have conducted in my race over the last 6 months, trends I'm seeing on the ground, and real time data that is  being provided on this primary election right now----leads me to believe that roughly 28-29% of eligible voters in D1 will actually cast ballots in this primary election by any means (early, absentee, day of voting).

Now, if I am right in this prediction (which I believe I am)--this could mean that as of right now--- nearly 40% of the total ballots that will be cast in District 1 have already been cast.

And if the absentee ballots continue to pour in this week as they have been--and with early voting going strong for the next 7 days--It is not outside the realm of possibility that by one week from today as much as 55-65% of the total number of votes to be cast in this primary may have been cast--leaving potentially as small as a 35% of total to be cast remaining out on election day.

Imagine that--as much as 2/3 of the votes for an election day cast-----before election day?!?

Watch. 

This is not my campaign website, however campaign-related topics are discussed in this post and therefore in an abundance of caution I offer the following disclaimer:

Political Advertisement paid for and approved by Jeff Bergosh, Republican, for Escambia County Commission District 1